References (329)
All references in the corpus, listed by decreasing publication date.
Expert judgment in climate science: How it is used and how it can be justified. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2023
Machine learning and the quest for objectivity in climate model parameterization. Climatic Change. 2023
Diagnosing errors in climate model intercomparisons. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2023
Usability of climate information: Toward a new scientific framework. WIREs Climate Change. 2023
Against “Possibilist” Interpretations of Climate Models. Philosophy of Science. 2023
Communication of uncertainties, Probability & possibility, Reliability & uncertainty
Climate Models and Robustness Analysis – Part I: Core Concepts and Premises. In Handbook of the Philosophy of Climate Change. 2023
Climate Models and Robustness Analysis – Part II: The Justificatory Challenge. In Handbook of the Philosophy of Climate Change. 2023
Representing storylines with causal networks to support decision making: Framework and example. Climate Risk Management. 2023
Climate tipping points and expert judgment. WIREs Climate Change. 2022
Abrupt changes & tipping points, Earth System Science, Expert judgement, Values
(In)justice in modelled climate futures: A review of integrated assessment modelling critiques through a justice lens. Energy Research & Social Science. 2022
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), Predictions and projections
Whose climate intervention? Solar geoengineering, fractions of capital, and hegemonic strategy. Capital & Class. 2022
Climate-policy, Geoengineering, Solar Radiation Management (SRM)
Calibrating statistical tools: Improving the measure of Humanity's influence on the climate. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2022
An ineffective antidote for hawkmoths. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2022
When is an ensemble like a sample? “Model-based” inferences in climate modeling. Synthese. 2022
Solar geoengineering: The case for an international non‐use agreement. WIREs Climate Change. 2022
Toward a U.K. Climate Service Code of Ethics. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2022
The value of values in climate science. Nature Climate Change. 2022
Can Machines Learn How Clouds Work? The Epistemic Implications of Machine Learning Methods in Climate Science. Philosophy of Science. 2021
Does democracy require value-neutral science? Analyzing the legitimacy of scientific information in the political sphere. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2021
Which Methods Are Useful to Justify Public Policies? An Analysis of Cost–Benefit Analysis, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, and Non-Aggregate Indicator Systems. Journal for General Philosophy of Science. 2021
Taxonomies for structuring models for World–Earth systems analysis of the Anthropocene: subsystems, their interactions and social–ecological feedback loops. 2021
On the appropriate and inappropriate uses of probability distributions in climate projections and some alternatives. Climatic Change. 2021
Decision-making, Ensemble methods, Expert judgement, Probability & possibility, Reliability & uncertainty
The epistemic value of independent lies: false analogies and equivocations. Synthese. 2021
Climate modelling and structural stability. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2021
Hawkmoth effect, Structural stability, Theoretical foundations
Expert reports by large multidisciplinary groups: the case of the International Panel on Climate Change. Synthese. 2021
Climate change communication, Communication of uncertainties
Three Decades of Climate Mitigation: Why Haven't We Bent the Global Emissions Curve? Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 2021
Assessing the quality of state-of-the-art regional climate information: the case of the UK Climate Projections 2018. Climatic Change. 2021
Adaptation, Adequacy-for-purpose, Climate information distillation, Probability & possibility
Value management and model pluralism in climate science. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2021
Model spread and progress in climate modelling. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2021
Making Confident Decisions with Model Ensembles. Philosophy of Science. 2021
Two Exploratory Uses for General Circulation Models in Climate Science. Perspectives on Science. 2021
It is dangerous to normalize solar geoengineering research. Nature. 2021
Indigenous climate change adaptation: New directions for emerging scholarship. Environment and Planning E: Nature and Space. 2021
Does environmental science crowd out non-epistemic values? Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2021
Numerical instability and dynamical systems. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2021
Climate Models and the Irrelevance of Chaos. Philosophy of Science. 2021
A Modest Defense of Geoengineering Research: a Case Study in the Cost of Learning. Philosophy & Technology. 2021
Why Simpler Computer Simulation Models Can Be Epistemically Better for Informing Decisions. Philosophy of Science. 2021
Climate scientists set the bar of proof too high. Climatic Change. 2021
Values in early-stage climate engineering: The ethical implications of “doing the research”. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2021
Saving the Data. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2021
Assessing the Quality of Regional Climate Information. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2021
Climate information distillation, Climate services, Regional climate modelling
The infrastructures of White settler perception: A political phenomenology of colonialism, genocide, ecocide, and emergency. Environment and Planning E: Nature and Space. 2021
Robustness reasoning in climate model comparisons. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2021
Data models, representation and adequacy-for-purpose. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2021
Looking Forward and Backward at Extreme Event Attribution in Climate Policy. Ethics, Policy & Environment. 2021
Encounters between Security and Earth System Sciences: Planetary Boundaries and Hothouse Earth. In International Relations in the Anthropocene. 2021
Uncertainties, Values, and Climate Targets. Philosophy of Science. 2020
Political Legitimacy in the Democratic View: The Case of Climate Services. Philosophy of Science. 2020
Local Model-Data Symbiosis in Meteorology and Climate Science. Philosophy of Science. 2020
Understanding climate phenomena with data-driven models. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2020
Argument-based assessment of predictive uncertainty of data-driven environmental models. Environmental Modelling & Software. 2020
Severe weather event attribution: Why values won't go away. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2020
Feminist Perspectives on Values in Science. In The Routledge Handbook of Feminist Philosophy of Science. 2020
Ours Is the Earth: Science and Human History in the Anthropocene. Journal of the Philosophy of History. 2020
5 Geoengineering and Indigenous Climate Justice: A Conversation with Kyle Powys Whyte. In Has It Come to This? : The Promises and Perils of Geoengineering on the Brink. 2020
Historical, Philosophical, and Sociological Perspectives on Earth System Modeling. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 2020
Climate & climate change, Earth System Science, Predictions and projections
Multi-model ensembles in climate science: Mathematical structures and expert judgements. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2020
Understanding climate change with statistical downscaling and machine learning. Synthese. 2020
Negative emissions and the long history of carbon removal. WIREs Climate Change. 2020
Values and Objectivity in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Social Epistemology. 2020
Model Evaluation: An Adequacy-for-Purpose View. Philosophy of Science. 2020
Structural uncertainty through the lens of model building. Synthese. 2020
Parameterization, Reliability & uncertainty, Structural model error
Seepage, objectivity, and climate science. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2020
Understanding and assessing uncertainty of observational climate datasets for model evaluation using ensembles. WIREs Climate Change. 2020
The strategy of model building in climate science. Synthese. 2020
Confident, likely, or both? The implementation of the uncertainty language framework in IPCC special reports. Climatic Change. 2020
Communication of uncertainties, Expert judgement, Reliability & uncertainty
Evidence and Knowledge from Computer Simulation. Erkenntnis. 2020
The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project: History, uses, and structural effects on climate research. WIREs Climate Change. 2020
Environmental catastrophes, climate change, and attribution. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. 2020
Value-Free yet Policy-Relevant? The Normative Views of Climate Scientists and Their Bearing on Philosophy. Perspectives on Science. 2020
Containing climate change: The new governmental strategies of catastrophic environments. Environment and Planning E: Nature and Space. 2020
Tipping positive change. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 2020
Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2020
The emergence and evolution of Earth System Science. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment. 2020
Philosophical Perspectives on Earth System Modeling: Truth, Adequacy, and Understanding. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 2020
Philosophical Perspectives on Earth System Modeling: Truth, Adequacy, and Understanding. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 2020
Adequacy-for-purpose, Confirmation & evaluation, Understanding & explanation
Les révoltes du ciel. Une histoire du changement climatique, XVe-XXe siècles. Les révoltes du ciel. Une histoire du changement climatique, XVe-XXe siècles. 2020
Has It Come to This?: The Promises and Perils of Geoengineering on the Brink. Has It Come to This?: The Promises and Perils of Geoengineering on the Brink. 2020. 2020
Adaptation, Carbon Dioxyde Removal (CDR), Climate-policy, Geoengineering, Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), Solar Radiation Management (SRM), Values
Evaluating Data Journeys: Climategate, Synthetic Data and the Benchmarking of Methods for Climate Data Processing. In Data Journeys in the Sciences. 2020
Initial-Condition Dependence and Initial-Condition Uncertainty in Climate Science. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2019
Hawkmoth effect, Reliability & uncertainty, Theoretical foundations
Full textCitesCited byNote
An outline of predictions and projections in climate science through the lens of initial-condition dependence and initial-condition uncertainty. During the discussion of uncertainty, Werndl outlines two types which had not been discussed to much extent in the philosophical community. This new insight leads to many conclusions throughout the entirety of the paper.
Is the concept of ‘tipping point’ helpful for describing and communicating possible climate futures? In Contemporary Climate Change Debates. 2019
Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against. Nature. 2019
Explicating Objectual Understanding: Taking Degrees Seriously. Journal for General Philosophy of Science. 2019
Incorporating User Values into Climate Services. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2019
Numerical Bifurcation Methods applied to Climate Models: Analysis beyond Simulation. 2019
Epistemology and Politics in Earth System Modeling: Historical Perspectives. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 2019
Climate & climate change, Earth System Science, Predictions and projections
Stratospheric imperialism: Liberalism, (eco)modernization, and ideologies of solar geoengineering research. Environment and Planning E: Nature and Space. 2019
Climate Models: How to Assess Their Reliability. International Studies in the Philosophy of Science. 2019
Confirmation & evaluation, Confirmational holism, Robustness
“Fixing” Climate Change by Mortgaging the Future: Negative Emissions, Spatiotemporal Fixes, and the Political Economy of Delay. 2019
Carbon Dioxyde Removal (CDR), Climate-policy, Geoengineering
Securitization of climate change: How invoking global dangers for instrumental ends can backfire. 2019
Visualizing Natural Environments from Data in Virtual Reality: Combining Realism and Uncertainty. In 2019 IEEE Conference on Virtual Reality and 3D User Interfaces (VR). 2019
Applying big data beyond small problems in climate research. Nature Climate Change. 2019
An antidote for hawkmoths: on the prevalence of structural chaos in non-linear modeling. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2019
Establishing causation in climate litigation: admissibility and reliability. Climatic Change. 2019
What Types of Values Enter Simulation Validation and What Are Their Roles? In Simulation Foundations, Methods and Applications. 2019
Uncertainty Quantification Using Multiple Models—Prospects and Challenges. In Simulation Foundations, Methods and Applications. 2019
Learning About Forest Futures Under Climate Change Through Transdisciplinary Collaboration Across Traditional and Western Knowledge Systems. In Collaboration Across Boundaries for Social-Ecological Systems Science. 2019
Holism, or the Erosion of Modularity: A Methodological Challenge for Validation. Philosophy of Science. 2018
What does robustness teach us in climate science: a re-appraisal. Synthese. 2018
Confirmation & evaluation, Ensemble methods, Robustness, Values
Climate and Simulation. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science. 2018
The IPCC and the new map of science and politics. WIREs Climate Change. 2018
Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2018
Abrupt changes & tipping points, Anthropocene, Earth System Science
Issues in the theoretical foundations of climate science. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2018
Climate & climate change, Theoretical foundations, Variability
Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment. Climatic Change. 2018
Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation. Environmental Research Letters. 2018
Model-Selection Theory: The Need for a More Nuanced Picture of Use-Novelty and Double-Counting. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2018
Calibration/tuning, Confirmation & evaluation
Full textCitesCited byNote
A discussion regarding double-counting in climate modeling, arguing that the use-novel intuition largely held in the scientific community, that data used in tuning cannot be used in confirmation, is too crude. Steele and Werndl maintain that the prominent logics of confirmation do not, for varying reasons, support this intuitive position in full.
Negative emissions—Part 1: Research landscape and synthesis. Environmental Research Letters. 2018
Carbon Dioxyde Removal (CDR), Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs)
Negative emissions—Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects. Environmental Research Letters. 2018
Cascading biases against poorer countries. Nature Climate Change. 2018
Abrupt Climate Change in an Oscillating World. Scientific Reports. 2018
Defining tipping points for social-ecological systems scholarship—an interdisciplinary literature review. Environmental Research Letters. 2018
Climate Change Attribution: When Is It Appropriate to Accept New Methods? Earth's Future. 2018
On Rationales for Cognitive Values in the Assessment of Scientific Representations. Journal for General Philosophy of Science. 2018
Modeling Climate Policies: The Social Cost of Carbon and Uncertainties in Climate Predictions. In Climate Modelling. 2018
Climate Model Confirmation: From Philosophy to Predicting Climate in the Real World. In Lloyd, Elisabeth A., Winsberg, Eric (eds.) Climate Modelling. 2018
Building Trust, Removing Doubt? Robustness Analysis and Climate Modeling. In Climate Modelling. 2018
The Significance of Robust Climate Projections. In Climate Modelling. 2018
Confirmation & evaluation, Ensemble methods, Reliability & uncertainty, Robustness, Robustness
Communicating Uncertainty to Policymakers: The Ineliminable Role of Values. In Climate Modelling. 2018
Communication of uncertainties, Reliability & uncertainty, Values
Epistemic and ethical trade-offs in decision analytical modelling. Climatic Change. 2017
Epistemic trust and the ethics of science communication: against transparency, openness, sincerity and honesty. Social Epistemology. 2017
Reply to “Comments on ‘Reanalyses and Observations: What’s the Difference?’”. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2017
Feminist Imaginations in a Heated Climate: Parody, Idiocy, and Climatological Possibilities. Catalyst: Feminism, Theory, Technoscience. 2017
Practice and philosophy of climate model tuning across six US modeling centers. Geoscientific Model Development. 2017
Calibration/tuning, Confirmation & evaluation, Ensemble methods
Assessing climate change impacts on extreme weather events: the case for an alternative (Bayesian) approach. Climatic Change. 2017
Virtual, visible, and actionable: Data assemblages and the sightlines of justice. Big Data & Society. 2017
Closing the loop: Reconnecting human dynamics to Earth System science. The Anthropocene Review. 2017
Facing the Credibility Crisis of Science: On the Ambivalent Role of Pluralism in Establishing Relevance and Reliability. Perspectives on Science. 2017
Mathematical Images of Planet Earth. In Edition Kulturwissenschaft. 2017
Values and evidence: how models make a difference. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2017
Climate Change Assessments: Confidence, Probability, and Decision. Philosophy of Science. 2017
Communication of uncertainties, Decision-making, Reliability & uncertainty
How to develop climate models? The “gamble” of improving climate model parameterizations. In Cultures of Prediction in Atmospheric and Climate Science. 2017
Cultures of Prediction in Atmospheric and Climate Science. 2017
Climate & climate change, Earth System Science, Predictions and projections, Value-free ideal, Values
Conceptualizing the transfer of knowledge across cases in transdisciplinary research. Sustainability Science. 2017
The Capitalocene Part II: accumulation by appropriation and the centrality of unpaid work/energy. The Journal of Peasant Studies. 2017
The social utility of event attribution: liability, adaptation, and justice-based loss and damage. Climatic Change. 2017
Adaptation, Attribution, Climate-policy, Decision-making, Extreme events
Argument-based decision support for risk analysis. Journal of Risk Research. 2017
The IPCC and the politics of anticipation. Nature Climate Change. 2017
Why the Argument from Inductive Risk Doesn’t Justify Incorporating Non-Epistemic Values in Scientific Reasoning. In Current Controversies in Values and Science. 2017
The Capitalocene, Part I: on the nature and origins of our ecological crisis. The Journal of Peasant Studies. 2017
The necessary and inaccessible 1.5°C objective. In Globalising the Climate. 2017
The Art and Science of Climate Model Tuning. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2017
Calibration/tuning, Confirmation & evaluation, Parameterization
Computer Simulation, Measurement, and Data Assimilation. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2017
“Agreement” in the IPCC Confidence measure. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2017
Communication of uncertainties, Expert judgement, Reliability & uncertainty
Building confidence in climate model projections: an analysis of inferences from fit. WIREs Climate Change. 2017
Understanding scientists’ computational modeling decisions about climate risk management strategies using values-informed mental models. Global Environmental Change. 2017
Climate Policy in the Age of Trump. Kennedy Institute of Ethics Journal. 2017
Empirical Bayes as a Tool. In Boston Studies in the Philosophy and History of Science. 2017
Conceptualizing Uncertainty: An Assessment of the Uncertainty Framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In European Studies in Philosophy of Science. 2017
Communication of uncertainties, Expert judgement, Reliability & uncertainty
Missing the Forest for the Fish: How Much Does the ‘Hawkmoth Effect’ Threaten the Viability of Climate Projections? Philosophy of Science. 2016
The Diversity of Model Tuning Practices in Climate Science. Philosophy of Science. 2016
Confirmation & evaluation, Confirmational holism
Full textCitesCited byNote
A discussion of what is dubbed the “intuitive position” of calibration and confirmation of climate models. In short, this position states, the tuning of a model directly influences the evaluation of said model, as a result the values used to tune the model cannot be used in the model’s evaluation. Steele and Werndl focus on the diversity of formal calibration methods and how the different perspectives relate to the intuitive position.
Expert Judgment for Climate Change Adaptation. Philosophy of Science. 2016
Is it appropriate to ‘target’ inappropriate dissent? on the normative consequences of climate skepticism. Synthese. 2016
Climate change communication, Communication of uncertainties, Communication of uncertainties, Reliability & uncertainty, Values
Lessons on Climate Sensitivity From Past Climate Changes. Current Climate Change Reports. 2016
Managing the carbon rift: Social metabolism, geoengineering and climate capitalism. 2016
The Risk of Using Inductive Risk to Challenge the Value-Free Ideal. Philosophy of Science. 2016
Reanalyses and Observations: What’s the Difference? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2016
Variety-of-evidence reasoning about the distant past. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2016
On Defining Climate and Climate Change. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2016
Climate & climate change, Theoretical foundations
Full textCitesCited byNote
An outline of the ongoing debate regarding how to properly provide a definition of climate and climate change. Werndl first systematizes the debate by providing five desiderata that a proper definition of climate should follow. Ultimately, a number of candidates for a definition are discussed and Werndl argues that a definition focusing on a distribution over time for regimes of varying external conditions is the most promising as it meets all five desiderata.
The adventures of climate science in the sweet land of idle arguments. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2016
Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change. Nature Climate Change. 2016
Computer models and the evidence of anthropogenic climate change: An epistemology of variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2016
Risk of multiple interacting tipping points should encourage rapid CO2 emission reduction. Nature Climate Change. 2016
From Social Values to P-Values: The Social Epistemology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Journal of Applied Philosophy. 2016
The Shock of the Anthropocene, : the earth, history and us . The Shock of the Anthropocene. 2016
Accounting for Possibilities in Decision Making. In Logic, Argumentation & Reasoning. 2016
Temporal Strategies for Decision-making. In Logic, Argumentation & Reasoning. 2016
Climate Change Through the Lens of Feminist Philosophy. In Boston Studies in the Philosophy and History of Science. 2015
Ontological Choices and the Value-Free Ideal. Erkenntnis. 2015
Philosophy of Climate Science Part I: Observing Climate Change. Philosophy Compass. 2015
Philosophy of Climate Science Part II: Modelling Climate Change. Philosophy Compass. 2015
False precision, surprise and improved uncertainty assessment. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2015
Framing the Anthropocene: The good, the bad and the ugly. The Anthropocene Review. 2015
Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2015
Decision strategies for policy decisions under uncertainties: The case of mitigation measures addressing methane emissions from ruminants. Environmental Science & Policy. 2015
Factual and normative dissent in media debates about climate policy. Climatic Change. 2015
Introduction to the Special Issue on Philosophy and Climate Science. Journal for General Philosophy of Science. 2015
The unseen uncertainties in climate change: reviewing comprehension of an IPCC scenario graph. Climatic Change. 2015
Communication of uncertainties, Reliability & uncertainty, Understanding & explanation
Global Climate Modeling as Applied Science. Journal for General Philosophy of Science. 2015
Uncertainties, Plurality, and Robustness in Climate Research and Modeling: On the Reliability of Climate Prognoses. Journal for General Philosophy of Science. 2015
Climate skepticism and the manufacture of doubt: can dissent in science be epistemically detrimental? European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2015
Climate change communication, Communication of uncertainties, Communication of uncertainties, Reliability & uncertainty, Values
An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09. Synthese. 2015
Climate change tipping points: origins, precursors, and debates. WIREs Climate Change. 2015
Who speaks for the future of Earth? How critical social science can extend the conversation on the Anthropocene. Global Environmental Change. 2015
Introduction to Assessing climate models: knowledge, values and policy. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2015
Stochastic integrated assessment of climate tipping points indicates the need for strict climate policy. Nature Climate Change. 2015
Predictivism and old evidence: a critical look at climate model tuning. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2015
Calibration/tuning, Confirmation & evaluation, Confirmational holism
Predictivism and old evidence: a critical look at climate model tuning. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2015
Are climate models credible worlds? Prospects and limitations of possibilistic climate prediction. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2015
Model robustness as a confirmatory virtue: The case of climate science. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2015
Distinguishing between legitimate and illegitimate values in climate modeling. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2015
The Anthropocene and the Global Environmental Crisis Rethinking modernity in a new epoch. The Anthropocene and the Global Environmental CrisisRethinking modernity in a new epoch. 2015
How earth science has become a social science. Historical Social Research. 2015
A practical philosophy of complex climate modelling. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2014
Who's Afraid of Dissent? Addressing Concerns about Undermining Scientific Consensus in Public Policy Developments. Perspectives on Science. 2014
Going back to basics. Nature Climate Change. 2014
Confirmation & evaluation, Hawkmoth effect, Theoretical foundations
Positivist Climate Conflict Research: A Critique. Geopolitics. 2014
Adequacy-for-purpose, Climate-policy, Decision-making, Value-free ideal
Climate Simulations: Uncertain Projections for an Uncertain World. Journal for General Philosophy of Science. 2014
Model uncertainty and policy choice: A plea for integrated subjectivism. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2014
Simulation and Understanding in the Study of Weather and Climate. Perspectives on Science. 2014
The example of the IPCC does not vindicate the Value Free Ideal: a reply to Gregor Betz. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2014
Communication of uncertainties, Reliability & uncertainty, Values
The IPCC and treatment of uncertainties: topics and sources of dissensus. WIREs Climate Change. 2014
Climate change communication, Communication of uncertainties
How understanding causal relations counts in criticising arguments against anthropogenic global climate change. Meteorologische Zeitschrift. 2014
Values and uncertainties in climate prediction, revisited. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2014
Confirmation & evaluation, Reliability & uncertainty, Values
Accountability and values in radically collaborative research. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2014
The epistemology of climate models and some of its implications for climate science and the philosophy of science. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2014
Confirmation & evaluation, Probability & possibility, Reliability & uncertainty
MODEL ERROR AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTING: A CAUTIONARY TALE. In Scientific Explanation and Methodology of Science. 2014
Are there limits to scientists’ obligations to seek and engage dissenters? Synthese. 2014
A sociometabolic reading of the Anthropocene: Modes of subsistence, population size and human impact on Earth. The Anthropocene Review. 2014
The geology of mankind? A critique of the Anthropocene narrative. The Anthropocene Review. 2014
Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices. Philosophy of Science. 2014
Can science fix climate change?: A case against climate engineering. 2014
Getting (even more) serious about similarity. Biology & Philosophy. 2013
The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09. Philosophy of Science. 2013
Chaos, Plurality, and Model Metrics in Climate Science. In Models, Simulations, and the Reduction of Complexity. 2013
Objectivity and a comparison of methodological scenario approaches for climate change research. Synthese. 2013
Severe testing of climate change hypotheses. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2013
Values and Uncertainty in Simulation Models. Erkenntnis. 2013
How Uncertain Do We Need to Be? Erkenntnis. 2013
Communication of uncertainties, Expert judgement, Probability & possibility, Reliability & uncertainty
Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us? Journal of Economic Literature. 2013
Adequacy-for-purpose, Cost-benefit analysis, Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), Values
Climate Models, Calibration, and Confirmation. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2013
Calibration/tuning, Confirmation & evaluation
Full textCitesCited byNote
A discussion of the problem of double-counting in climate modeling, specifically when the same evidence is used to both calibrate a model and then confirm the adequacy of the results. Steele and Werndl turn to a Baysian approach to argue for a method of incremental confirmation, making double-counting unproblematic. For a response to this argument see Mathias Frisch’s 2015 paper “Predictivism and old evidence: a critical look at climate model tuning”.
Ensemble modeling, uncertainty and robust predictions. WIREs Climate Change. 2013
Reconceptualizing the ‘Anthropos’ in the Anthropocene: Integrating the social sciences and humanities in global environmental change research. Environmental Science & Policy. 2013
Hybrid Models, Climate Models, and Inference to the Best Explanation. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2013
Modeling Climate Policies: A Critical Look at Integrated Assessment Models. Philosophy & Technology. 2013
In defence of the value free ideal. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2013
An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets. Nature Climate Change. 2013
Probabilistic Forecasting: Why Model Imperfection Is a Poison Pill. In New Challenges to Philosophy of Science. 2013
Climate Science Controversies and the Demand for Access to Empirical Data. Philosophy of Science. 2012
The Scientist qua Policy Advisor Makes Value Judgments. Philosophy of Science. 2012
Assessing climate model projections: State of the art and philosophical reflections. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2012
Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nature Climate Change. 2012
Rise of interdisciplinary research on climate. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2012
Values and Objectivity in Science: Value-Ladenness, Pluralism and the Epistemic Attitude. Science & Education. 2012
The role of ‘complex’ empiricism in the debates about satellite data and climate models. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2012
The key role of causal explanation in the climate change issue. THEORIA. An International Journal for Theory, History and Foundations of Science. 2012
Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2012
Modernity's Frail Climate: A Climate History of Environmental Reflexivity. Critical Inquiry. 2012
The Inner World of Models and Its Epistemic Diversity: Infectious Disease and Climate Modelling. In Automation, Collaboration, & E-Services. 2012
Values and Uncertainties in the Predictions of Global Climate Models. Kennedy Institute of Ethics Journal. 2012
Predictions and projections, Reliability & uncertainty, Values
Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2011
Communication of uncertainties, Decision-making, Reliability & uncertainty
Perceiving, explaining, and observing climatic changes: An historical case study of the "year without a summer" 1816. Meteorologische Zeitschrift. 2011
Mapping model agreement on future climate projections. Geophysical Research Letters. 2011
Ensemble methods, Predictions and projections, Reliability & uncertainty, Robustness
The Anthropocene: From Global Change to Planetary Stewardship. AMBIO. 2011
Validation and forecasting accuracy in models of climate change. International Journal of Forecasting. 2011
When Climate Models Agree: The Significance of Robust Model Predictions*. Philosophy of Science. 2011
Confirmation & evaluation, Ensemble methods, Robustness, Values
Depoliticized Environments: The End of Nature, Climate Change and the Post-Political Condition. Royal Institute of Philosophy Supplement. 2011
The case for climate engineering research: an analysis of the “arm the future” argument. Climatic Change. 2011
Reasoning about climate uncertainty. Climatic Change. 2011
Climate change communication, Communication of uncertainties, Communication of uncertainties, Reliability & uncertainty, Values
Computer simulation and philosophy of science. Metascience. 2011
Should we assess climate model predictions in light of severe tests? Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union. 2011
2 °C or not 2 °C? That is the climate question. Nature. 2011
Epistemological issues raised by research on climate change. In Causality in the Sciences. 2011
Optimal Climate Change: Economics and Climate Science Policy Histories (from Heuristic to Normative). Osiris. 2011
Reducing the Future to Climate: A Story of Climate Determinism and Reductionism. Osiris. 2011
Global warming: How skepticism became denial. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 2011
Modelling the Climate System: An Overview. In Climate Change and Policy. 2011
Confirmation and Robustness of Climate Models. Philosophy of Science. 2010
Quantification of Uncertainties of Future Climate Change: Challenges and Applications. Philosophy of Science. 2010
Communication of uncertainties, Decision-making, Reliability & uncertainty
Adaptation to Global Warming: Do Climate Models Tell Us What We Need to Know? Philosophy of Science. 2010
Adaptation, Confirmation & evaluation, Regional climate modelling, Reliability & uncertainty
Comparative Process Tracing and Climate Change Fingerprints. Philosophy of Science. 2010
Whose Probabilities? Predicting Climate Change with Ensembles of Models. Philosophy of Science. 2010
Ensemble methods, Probability & possibility, Reliability & uncertainty
Conceiving processes in atmospheric models—General equations, subscale parameterizations, and ‘superparameterizations’. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2010
Connections between simulations and observation in climate computer modeling. Scientist’s practices and “bottom-up epistemology” lessons. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2010
Holism, entrenchment, and the future of climate model pluralism. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2010
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An Instrument for What? Digital Computers, Simulation and Scientific Practice. Spontaneous Generations: A Journal for the History and Philosophy of Science. 2010
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The idea of anthropogenic global climate change in the 20th century. WIREs Climate Change. 2009
Conceiving Meteorology as the exact science of the atmosphere: Vilhelm Bjerknes's paper of 1904 as a milestone. Meteorologische Zeitschrift. 2009
The tipping point trend in climate change communication. Global Environmental Change. 2009
Underdetermination, Model-ensembles and Surprises: On the Epistemology of Scenario-analysis in Climatology. Journal for General Philosophy of Science. 2009
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What range of future scenarios should climate policy be based on? Modal falsificationism and its limitations. Philosophia Naturalis. 2009
Limitations of integrated assessment models of climate change. Climatic Change. 2009
The evolution of the IPCC's emissions scenarios. Environmental Science & Policy. 2009
Unstable climates: Exploring the statistical and social constructions of ‘normal’ climate. 2009
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Simulation - Analyse der organisationellen Etablierungsbestrebungen der epistemischen Kultur des Simulierens am Beispiel der Klimamodellierung. In Organisationen der Forschung. 2009
Bifurcation Analysis of Ocean, Atmosphere, and Climate Models. In Handbook of Numerical Analysis. 2009
Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change? Climatic Change. 2008
Does matter really matter? Computer simulations, experiments, and materiality. Synthese. 2008
Should we believe model predictions of future climate change? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2008
Computer simulation through an error-statistical lens. Synthese. 2008
Probabilities in climate policy advice: a critical comment. Climatic Change. 2007
Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2007
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Irreducible imprecision in atmospheric and oceanic simulations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2007
Understanding Pluralism in Climate Modeling. Foundations of Science. 2006
Confirmation & evaluation, Ensemble methods, Reliability & uncertainty
Albedo Enhancement by Stratospheric Sulfur Injections: A Contribution to Resolve a Policy Dilemma? Climatic Change. 2006
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Nonlinearities, Feedbacks and Critical Thresholds within the Earth's Climate System. Climatic Change. 2004
Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities? 2004
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Adaptation to climate change in the developing world. Progress in Development Studies. 2003
The “anthropocene”. Journal de Physique IV (Proceedings). 2002
What might we learn from climate forecasts? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2002
Epistemic Lifestyles in Climate Change. In Changing the Atmosphere. 2001
Status and Improvements of Coupled General Circulation Models. Science. 2000
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