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An outline of predictions and projections in climate science through the lens of initial-condition dependence and initial-condition uncertainty. During the discussion of uncertainty, Werndl outlines two types which had not been discussed to much extent in the philosophical community. This new insight leads to many conclusions throughout the entirety of the paper.

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  1. An ineffective antidote for hawkmoths. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2022 Frigg, Roman, Smith, Leonard A.

    Hawkmoth effect, Reliability & uncertainty

  2. An antidote for hawkmoths: on the prevalence of structural chaos in non-linear modeling. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2019 Nabergall, Lukas, Navas, Alejandro, Winsberg, Eric

    Hawkmoth effect, Reliability & uncertainty