Subjects » Confirmation & evaluation
Issues related to the empirical support and general evaluation of climate models.
References (60)
The subject ‘Confirmation & evaluation’ is applied to these references.
Diagnosing errors in climate model intercomparisons. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2023
Climate Models and Robustness Analysis – Part I: Core Concepts and Premises. In Handbook of the Philosophy of Climate Change. 2023
Climate Models and Robustness Analysis – Part II: The Justificatory Challenge. In Handbook of the Philosophy of Climate Change. 2023
The epistemic value of independent lies: false analogies and equivocations. Synthese. 2021
Robustness reasoning in climate model comparisons. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2021
Model Evaluation: An Adequacy-for-Purpose View. Philosophy of Science. 2020
Evidence and Knowledge from Computer Simulation. Erkenntnis. 2020
Philosophical Perspectives on Earth System Modeling: Truth, Adequacy, and Understanding. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 2020
Adequacy-for-purpose, Confirmation & evaluation, Understanding & explanation
Climate Models: How to Assess Their Reliability. International Studies in the Philosophy of Science. 2019
Confirmation & evaluation, Confirmational holism, Robustness
What Types of Values Enter Simulation Validation and What Are Their Roles? In Simulation Foundations, Methods and Applications. 2019
Holism, or the Erosion of Modularity: A Methodological Challenge for Validation. Philosophy of Science. 2018
What does robustness teach us in climate science: a re-appraisal. Synthese. 2018
Confirmation & evaluation, Ensemble methods, Robustness, Values
Climate and Simulation. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science. 2018
Model-Selection Theory: The Need for a More Nuanced Picture of Use-Novelty and Double-Counting. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2018
Calibration/tuning, Confirmation & evaluation
Full textCitesCited byNote
A discussion regarding double-counting in climate modeling, arguing that the use-novel intuition largely held in the scientific community, that data used in tuning cannot be used in confirmation, is too crude. Steele and Werndl maintain that the prominent logics of confirmation do not, for varying reasons, support this intuitive position in full.
On Rationales for Cognitive Values in the Assessment of Scientific Representations. Journal for General Philosophy of Science. 2018
Climate Model Confirmation: From Philosophy to Predicting Climate in the Real World. In Lloyd, Elisabeth A., Winsberg, Eric (eds.) Climate Modelling. 2018
Building Trust, Removing Doubt? Robustness Analysis and Climate Modeling. In Climate Modelling. 2018
The Significance of Robust Climate Projections. In Climate Modelling. 2018
Confirmation & evaluation, Ensemble methods, Reliability & uncertainty, Robustness, Robustness
Practice and philosophy of climate model tuning across six US modeling centers. Geoscientific Model Development. 2017
Calibration/tuning, Confirmation & evaluation, Ensemble methods
How to develop climate models? The “gamble” of improving climate model parameterizations. In Cultures of Prediction in Atmospheric and Climate Science. 2017
The Art and Science of Climate Model Tuning. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2017
Calibration/tuning, Confirmation & evaluation, Parameterization
Building confidence in climate model projections: an analysis of inferences from fit. WIREs Climate Change. 2017
The Diversity of Model Tuning Practices in Climate Science. Philosophy of Science. 2016
Confirmation & evaluation, Confirmational holism
Full textCitesCited byNote
A discussion of what is dubbed the “intuitive position” of calibration and confirmation of climate models. In short, this position states, the tuning of a model directly influences the evaluation of said model, as a result the values used to tune the model cannot be used in the model’s evaluation. Steele and Werndl focus on the diversity of formal calibration methods and how the different perspectives relate to the intuitive position.
The adventures of climate science in the sweet land of idle arguments. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2016
Global Climate Modeling as Applied Science. Journal for General Philosophy of Science. 2015
Introduction to Assessing climate models: knowledge, values and policy. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2015
Predictivism and old evidence: a critical look at climate model tuning. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2015
Calibration/tuning, Confirmation & evaluation, Confirmational holism
Predictivism and old evidence: a critical look at climate model tuning. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2015
Model robustness as a confirmatory virtue: The case of climate science. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2015
A practical philosophy of complex climate modelling. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2014
Going back to basics. Nature Climate Change. 2014
Confirmation & evaluation, Hawkmoth effect, Theoretical foundations
Simulation and Understanding in the Study of Weather and Climate. Perspectives on Science. 2014
Values and uncertainties in climate prediction, revisited. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2014
Confirmation & evaluation, Reliability & uncertainty, Values
The epistemology of climate models and some of its implications for climate science and the philosophy of science. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2014
Confirmation & evaluation, Probability & possibility, Reliability & uncertainty
Getting (even more) serious about similarity. Biology & Philosophy. 2013
Severe testing of climate change hypotheses. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2013
Climate Models, Calibration, and Confirmation. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2013
Calibration/tuning, Confirmation & evaluation
Full textCitesCited byNote
A discussion of the problem of double-counting in climate modeling, specifically when the same evidence is used to both calibrate a model and then confirm the adequacy of the results. Steele and Werndl turn to a Baysian approach to argue for a method of incremental confirmation, making double-counting unproblematic. For a response to this argument see Mathias Frisch’s 2015 paper “Predictivism and old evidence: a critical look at climate model tuning”.
Hybrid Models, Climate Models, and Inference to the Best Explanation. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2013
Assessing climate model projections: State of the art and philosophical reflections. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2012
The role of ‘complex’ empiricism in the debates about satellite data and climate models. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2012
Validation and forecasting accuracy in models of climate change. International Journal of Forecasting. 2011
When Climate Models Agree: The Significance of Robust Model Predictions*. Philosophy of Science. 2011
Confirmation & evaluation, Ensemble methods, Robustness, Values
Should we assess climate model predictions in light of severe tests? Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union. 2011
Confirmation and Robustness of Climate Models. Philosophy of Science. 2010
Adaptation to Global Warming: Do Climate Models Tell Us What We Need to Know? Philosophy of Science. 2010
Adaptation, Confirmation & evaluation, Regional climate modelling, Reliability & uncertainty
Comparative Process Tracing and Climate Change Fingerprints. Philosophy of Science. 2010
Conceiving processes in atmospheric models—General equations, subscale parameterizations, and ‘superparameterizations’. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2010
Connections between simulations and observation in climate computer modeling. Scientist’s practices and “bottom-up epistemology” lessons. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2010
Holism, entrenchment, and the future of climate model pluralism. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2010
Generation of Evidence in Simulation Runs: Interlinking With Models for Predicting Weather and Climate Change. Simulation & Gaming. 2010
I—Elisabeth A. Lloyd: Varieties of Support and Confirmation of Climate Models. Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume. 2009
II—Wendy S. Parker: Confirmation and adequacy-for-Purpose in Climate Modelling. Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume. 2009
Does matter really matter? Computer simulations, experiments, and materiality. Synthese. 2008
Should we believe model predictions of future climate change? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2008
Computer simulation through an error-statistical lens. Synthese. 2008
Understanding Pluralism in Climate Modeling. Foundations of Science. 2006
Confirmation & evaluation, Ensemble methods, Reliability & uncertainty
What might we learn from climate forecasts? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2002
Verification, Validation, and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences. Science. 1994
Why we need lower-performance climate models. Climatic Change.