References »
Expert Judgment for Climate Change Adaptation. Philosophy of Science. 2016
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Expert judgment in climate science: How it is used and how it can be justified. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2023
Climate tipping points and expert judgment. WIREs Climate Change. 2022
Abrupt changes & tipping points, Earth System Science, Expert judgement, Values
An ineffective antidote for hawkmoths. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2022
On the appropriate and inappropriate uses of probability distributions in climate projections and some alternatives. Climatic Change. 2021
Decision-making, Ensemble methods, Expert judgement, Probability & possibility, Reliability & uncertainty
Climate modelling and structural stability. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2021
Hawkmoth effect, Structural stability, Theoretical foundations
Assessing the quality of state-of-the-art regional climate information: the case of the UK Climate Projections 2018. Climatic Change. 2021
Adaptation, Adequacy-for-purpose, Climate information distillation, Probability & possibility
Model spread and progress in climate modelling. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2021
Argument-based assessment of predictive uncertainty of data-driven environmental models. Environmental Modelling & Software. 2020
Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment. Climatic Change. 2018
Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation. Environmental Research Letters. 2018