Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2007 Stainforth, D.A, Allen, M.R, Tredger, E.R, Smith, L.A

Calibration/tuning, Decision-making, Reliability & uncertainty

Irreducible imprecision in atmospheric and oceanic simulations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2007 McWilliams, J. C.

Hawkmoth effect, Theoretical foundations

What might we learn from climate forecasts? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2002 Smith, L. A.

Confirmation & evaluation, Hawkmoth effect

Verification, Validation, and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences. Science. 1994 Oreskes, Naomi, Shrader-Frechette, Kristin, Belitz, Kenneth

Confirmation & evaluation, Confirmational holism

Structural uncertainty through the lens of model building. Synthese. 2020 Baldissera Pacchetti, Marina

Parameterization, Reliability & uncertainty, Structural model error

Understanding and assessing uncertainty of observational climate datasets for model evaluation using ensembles. WIREs Climate Change. 2020 Zumwald, Marius, Knüsel, Benedikt, Baumberger, Christoph, Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude, Bresch, David N., Knutti, Reto

Ensemble methods, Reliability & uncertainty

Climate Models: How to Assess Their Reliability. International Studies in the Philosophy of Science. 2019 Carrier, Martin, Lenhard, Johannes

Confirmation & evaluation, Confirmational holism, Robustness

Applying big data beyond small problems in climate research. Nature Climate Change. 2019 Knüsel, Benedikt, Zumwald, Marius, Baumberger, Christoph, Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude, Fischer, Erich M., Bresch, David N., Knutti, Reto

Data

What Types of Values Enter Simulation Validation and What Are Their Roles? In Simulation Foundations, Methods and Applications. 2019 Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude, Baumberger, Christoph

Confirmation & evaluation

Uncertainty Quantification Using Multiple Models—Prospects and Challenges. In Simulation Foundations, Methods and Applications. 2019 Knutti, Reto, Baumberger, Christoph, Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude

Ensemble methods, Reliability & uncertainty

On Rationales for Cognitive Values in the Assessment of Scientific Representations. Journal for General Philosophy of Science. 2018 Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude

Confirmation & evaluation

Climate Model Confirmation: From Philosophy to Predicting Climate in the Real World. In Lloyd, Elisabeth A., Winsberg, Eric (eds.) Climate Modelling. 2018 Knutti, Reto

Confirmation & evaluation, Predictions and projections

Practice and philosophy of climate model tuning across six US modeling centers. Geoscientific Model Development. 2017 Schmidt, Gavin A., Bader, David, Donner, Leo J., Elsaesser, Gregory S., Golaz, Jean-Christophe, Hannay, Cecile, Molod, Andrea, Neale, Richard B., Saha, Suranjana

Calibration/tuning, Confirmation & evaluation, Ensemble methods

Building confidence in climate model projections: an analysis of inferences from fit. WIREs Climate Change. 2017 Baumberger, Christoph, Knutti, Reto, Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude

Confirmation & evaluation, Robustness

Predictivism and old evidence: a critical look at climate model tuning. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2015 Frisch, Mathias

Calibration/tuning, Confirmation & evaluation, Confirmational holism

Predictivism and old evidence: a critical look at climate model tuning. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2015 Frisch, Mathias

Calibration/tuning, Confirmation & evaluation

Model robustness as a confirmatory virtue: The case of climate science. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2015 Lloyd, Elisabeth A.

Confirmation & evaluation, Robustness, Values

A practical philosophy of complex climate modelling. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2014 Schmidt, Gavin A., Sherwood, Steven

Calibration/tuning, Confirmation & evaluation

Assessing climate model projections: State of the art and philosophical reflections. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2012 Katzav, Joel, Dijkstra, Henk A., (Jos) de Laat, A.T.J.

Confirmation & evaluation, Reliability & uncertainty

Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nature Climate Change. 2012 Knutti, Reto, Sedláček, Jan

Ensemble methods, Reliability & uncertainty, Robustness

Validation and forecasting accuracy in models of climate change. International Journal of Forecasting. 2011 Fildes, Robert, Kourentzes, Nikolaos

Confirmation & evaluation

Holism, entrenchment, and the future of climate model pluralism. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2010 Lenhard, Johannes, Winsberg, Eric

Confirmation & evaluation, Confirmational holism