References (7)

The person ‘Charlotte Werndl’ is mentioned in author or editor position in these references.

1. Initial-Condition Dependence and Initial-Condition Uncertainty in Climate Science. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2019 Werndl, Charlotte

   Hawkmoth effect, Reliability & uncertainty, Theoretical foundations

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   An outline of predictions and projections in climate science through the lens of initial-condition dependence and initial-condition uncertainty. During the discussion of uncertainty, Werndl outlines two types which had not been discussed to much extent in the philosophical community. This new insight leads to many conclusions throughout the entirety of the paper.

2. Model-Selection Theory: The Need for a More Nuanced Picture of Use-Novelty and Double-Counting. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2018 Steele, Katie, Werndl, Charlotte

   Calibration/tuning, Confirmation & evaluation

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   A discussion regarding double-counting in climate modeling, arguing that the use-novel intuition largely held in the scientific community, that data used in tuning cannot be used in confirmation, is too crude. Steele and Werndl maintain that the prominent logics of confirmation do not, for varying reasons, support this intuitive position in full.

3. The Diversity of Model Tuning Practices in Climate Science. Philosophy of Science. 2016 Steele, Katie, Werndl, Charlotte

   Confirmation & evaluation, Confirmational holism

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   A discussion of what is dubbed the “intuitive position” of calibration and confirmation of climate models. In short, this position states, the tuning of a model directly influences the evaluation of said model, as a result the values used to tune the model cannot be used in the model’s evaluation. Steele and Werndl focus on the diversity of formal calibration methods and how the different perspectives relate to the intuitive position.

4. On Defining Climate and Climate Change. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2016 Werndl, Charlotte

   Climate & climate change, Theoretical foundations

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   An outline of the ongoing debate regarding how to properly provide a definition of climate and climate change. Werndl first systematizes the debate by providing five desiderata that a proper definition of climate should follow. Ultimately, a number of candidates for a definition are discussed and Werndl argues that a definition focusing on a distribution over time for regimes of varying external conditions is the most promising as it meets all five desiderata.

5. Philosophy of Climate Science Part I: Observing Climate Change. Philosophy Compass. 2015 Frigg, Roman, Thompson, Erica, Werndl, Charlotte

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6. Philosophy of Climate Science Part II: Modelling Climate Change. Philosophy Compass. 2015 Frigg, Roman, Thompson, Erica, Werndl, Charlotte

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7. Climate Models, Calibration, and Confirmation. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2013 Steele, Katie, Werndl, Charlotte

   Calibration/tuning, Confirmation & evaluation

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   A discussion of the problem of double-counting in climate modeling, specifically when the same evidence is used to both calibrate a model and then confirm the adequacy of the results. Steele and Werndl turn to a Baysian approach to argue for a method of incremental confirmation, making double-counting unproblematic. For a response to this argument see Mathias Frisch’s 2015 paper “Predictivism and old evidence: a critical look at climate model tuning”.