% Epistemology of Climate Change % https://philoclimate.ch % Generated on 2024-04-27 02:57:46+01:00 @article{parker2017values-difference, author = {Wendy S. Parker and Eric Winsberg}, doi = {10.1007/s13194-017-0180-6}, journal = {European Journal for Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Inductive risk, Value-free ideal, Values}, month = {7}, number = {1}, pages = {125-142}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {Values and evidence: how models make a difference}, volume = {8}, year = {2017}} @inproceedings{harris2023concepts-premises, author = {Margherita Harris and Roman Frigg}, booktitle = {Handbook of the Philosophy of Climate Change}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-031-07002-0\_146}, keywords = {Confirmation \& evaluation, Robustness}, pages = {67-88}, publisher = {Springer International Publishing}, title = {Climate Models and Robustness Analysis – Part I: Core Concepts and Premises}, year = {2023}} @inproceedings{harris2023models-robustness, author = {Margherita Harris and Roman Frigg}, booktitle = {Handbook of the Philosophy of Climate Change}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-031-07002-0\_147}, keywords = {Confirmation \& evaluation, Robustness}, pages = {89-103}, publisher = {Springer International Publishing}, title = {Climate Models and Robustness Analysis – Part II: The Justificatory Challenge}, year = {2023}} @article{harris2021independent-equivocations, author = {Margherita Harris}, doi = {10.1007/s11229-021-03434-8}, journal = {Synthese}, keywords = {Confirmation \& evaluation, Robustness}, month = {10}, number = {5-6}, pages = {14577-14597}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {The epistemic value of independent lies: false analogies and equivocations}, volume = {199}, year = {2021}} @article{oXXXloughlinYYYYclimate-models, author = {Ryan O’Loughlin}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-023-03661-7}, journal = {Climatic Change}, keywords = {Confirmation \& evaluation, Robustness}, title = {Why we need lower-performance climate models}} @article{oXXXloughlin2023diagnosing-intercomparisons, author = {Ryan O’Loughlin}, doi = {10.1007/s13194-023-00522-z}, journal = {European Journal for Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Confirmation \& evaluation, Robustness}, month = {3}, number = {2}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {Diagnosing errors in climate model intercomparisons}, volume = {13}, year = {2023}} @article{parker2020climate-science, author = {Wendy Parker}, doi = {10.1086/710621}, journal = {Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Data}, month = {12}, number = {5}, pages = {807-818}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, title = {Local Model-Data Symbiosis in Meteorology and Climate Science}, volume = {87}, year = {2020}} @article{jebeile2023climate-model, author = {Julie Jebeile and Vincent Lam and Mason M. Majszak and Tim Räz}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-023-03532-1}, journal = {Climatic Change}, keywords = {Calibration/tuning, Expert judgement, Values}, month = {7}, number = {8}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {Machine learning and the quest for objectivity in climate model parameterization}, volume = {176}, year = {2023}} @article{dethier2023against-models, author = {Corey Dethier}, doi = {10.1017/psa.2023.6}, journal = {Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Communication of uncertainties, Probability \& possibility, Reliability \& uncertainty}, month = {2}, pages = {1-13}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, title = {Against “Possibilist” Interpretations of Climate Models}, year = {2023}} @article{dethier2022calibrating-statistical, author = {Corey Dethier}, doi = {10.1016/j.shpsa.2022.06.010}, journal = {Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A}, keywords = {Attribution, Fingerprint studies}, month = {8}, pages = {158-166}, publisher = {Elsevier BV}, title = {Calibrating statistical tools: Improving the measure of Humanity's influence on the climate}, volume = {94}, year = {2022}} @article{majszak2023climate-justified, author = {Mason M. 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Cooke}, doi = {10.1038/nclimate2959}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, keywords = {Expert judgement}, month = {4}, number = {5}, pages = {445-451}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change}, volume = {6}, year = {2016}} @article{dessai2018through-elicitation, author = {Suraje Dessai and Ajay Bhave and Cathryn Birch and Declan Conway and Luis Garcia-Carreras and John Paul Gosling and Neha Mittal and David Stainforth}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aabcdd}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, keywords = {Expert judgement, Regional climate modelling}, month = {6}, number = {7}, pages = {074005}, publisher = {IOP Publishing}, title = {Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation}, volume = {13}, year = {2018}} @article{roussos2021decisions-model, author = {Joe Roussos and Richard Bradley and Roman Frigg}, doi = {10.1086/712818}, journal = {Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Decision-making, Ensemble methods}, month = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {439-460}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, title = {Making Confident Decisions with Model Ensembles}, volume = {88}, year = {2021}} @article{jebeile2023usability-scientific, author = {Julie Jebeile and Joe Roussos}, doi = {10.1002/wcc.833}, journal = {WIREs Climate Change}, keywords = {Communication of uncertainties, Decision-making, Values}, month = {3}, publisher = {Wiley}, title = {Usability of climate information: Toward a new scientific framework}, year = {2023}} @article{gundersen2020normative-views, author = {Torbjørn Gundersen}, doi = {10.1162/posc\_a\_00334}, journal = {Perspectives on Science}, keywords = {Inductive risk, Value-free ideal}, month = {2}, number = {1}, pages = {89-118}, publisher = {MIT Press - Journals}, title = {Value-Free yet Policy-Relevant? The Normative Views of Climate Scientists and Their Bearing on Philosophy}, volume = {28}, year = {2020}} @article{baldissera-pacchetti2021quality-climate, author = {Marina Baldissera Pacchetti and Suraje Dessai and David A. Stainforth and Seamus Bradley}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-021-03187-w}, journal = {Climatic Change}, keywords = {Adaptation, Adequacy-for-purpose, Climate information distillation, Probability \& possibility}, month = {9}, number = {1-2}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {Assessing the quality of state-of-the-art regional climate information: the case of the UK Climate Projections 2018}, volume = {168}, year = {2021}} @article{baldissera-pacchetti2022toward-service, author = {Marina Baldissera Pacchetti and Jillian Schacher and Suraje Dessai and Marta Bruno Soares and Rob Lawlor and Joseph Daron}, doi = {10.1175/bams-d-21-0137.1}, journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}, keywords = {Adaptation, Climate services}, month = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {E25-E32}, publisher = {American Meteorological Society}, title = {Toward a U.K. Climate Service Code of Ethics}, volume = {103}, year = {2022}} @article{baldissera-pacchetti2020uncertainty-model, author = {Marina Baldissera Pacchetti}, doi = {10.1007/s11229-020-02727-8}, journal = {Synthese}, keywords = {Parameterization, Reliability \& uncertainty, Structural model error}, month = {6}, number = {11}, pages = {10377-10393}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {Structural uncertainty through the lens of model building}, volume = {198}, year = {2020}} @article{kunimitsu2023representing-networks, author = {Taro Kunimitsu and Marina Baldissera Pacchetti and Alessio Ciullo and Jana Sillmann and Theodore G. Shepherd and Mehmet Ümit Taner and Bart van den Hurk}, doi = {10.1016/j.crm.2023.100496}, journal = {Climate Risk Management}, keywords = {Adaptation, Decision-making, Storylines}, pages = {100496}, publisher = {Elsevier BV}, title = {Representing storylines with causal networks to support decision making: Framework and example}, volume = {40}, year = {2023}} @article{kawamleh2021implications-learning, author = {Suzanne Kawamleh}, doi = {10.1086/714877}, journal = {Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Calibration/tuning, Parameterization}, month = {12}, number = {5}, pages = {1008-1020}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press (CUP)}, title = {Can Machines Learn How Clouds Work? The Epistemic Implications of Machine Learning Methods in Climate Science}, volume = {88}, year = {2021}} @article{hirsch-hadorn2021justify-analysis, author = {Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn}, doi = {10.1007/s10838-021-09580-4}, journal = {Journal for General Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Cost-benefit analysis, Decision-making}, month = {11}, note = {Systematic analysis of the issue, however no examples from climate policy.}, number = {2}, pages = {123-141}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {Which Methods Are Useful to Justify Public Policies? An Analysis of Cost–Benefit Analysis, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, and Non-Aggregate Indicator Systems}, volume = {53}, year = {2021}} @article{lusk2017utility-event, author = {Greg Lusk}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-017-1967-3}, journal = {Climatic Change}, keywords = {Adaptation, Attribution, Climate-policy, Decision-making, Extreme events}, month = {5}, number = {1-2}, pages = {201-212}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {The social utility of event attribution: liability, adaptation, and justice-based loss and damage}, volume = {143}, year = {2017}} @article{archer2020ultimate-carbon, author = {David Archer and Edwin Kite and Greg Lusk}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-020-02785-4}, journal = {Climatic Change}, keywords = {Climate-policy, Cost-benefit analysis}, month = {7}, number = {4}, pages = {2069-2086}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {The ultimate cost of carbon}, volume = {162}, year = {2020}} @article{lusk2021saving, author = {Greg Lusk}, doi = {10.1093/bjps/axy072}, journal = {The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Data, Datasets, Reanalysis, Understanding \& explanation}, month = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {277-298}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, title = {Saving the Data}, volume = {72}, year = {2021}} @article{lusk2021backward-extreme, author = {Greg Lusk}, doi = {10.1080/21550085.2020.1848195}, journal = {Ethics, Policy \& Environment}, keywords = {Adaptation, Attribution, Decision-making, Extreme events}, month = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {37-51}, publisher = {Informa UK Limited}, title = {Looking Forward and Backward at Extreme Event Attribution in Climate Policy}, volume = {25}, year = {2021}} @article{katzav2021appropriate-distributions, author = {Joel Katzav and Erica L. 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Miller and Paul N. 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A critique of the Anthropocene narrative}, volume = {1}, year = {2014}} @book{anonymous2020geographical-imagination, editor = {Martin Mahony and Samuel Randalls}, keywords = {Climate \& climate change, Climate-policy}, publisher = {UNIVERSITY of PITTSBURGH PRESS}, title = {WEATHER, CLIMATE, and the GEOGRAPHICAL IMAGINATION}, year = {2020}} @article{ludwig2015ontological-choices, author = {David Ludwig}, doi = {10.1007/s10670-015-9793-3}, journal = {Erkenntnis}, keywords = {Adequacy-for-purpose, Value-free ideal, Values}, month = {12}, number = {6}, pages = {1253-1272}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {Ontological Choices and the Value-Free Ideal}, volume = {81}, year = {2015}} @article{lenton2020tipping-positive, author = {Timothy M. Lenton}, doi = {10.1098/rstb.2019.0123}, journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences}, keywords = {Climate-policy}, month = {1}, number = {1794}, pages = {20190123}, publisher = {The Royal Society}, title = {Tipping positive change}, volume = {375}, year = {2020}} @article{kartha2018biases-against, author = {Sivan Kartha and Tom Athanasiou and Simon Caney and Elizabeth Cripps and Kate Dooley and Navroz K. Dubash and Teng Fei and Paul G. Harris and Christian Holz and Bård Lahn and Darrel Moellendorf and Benito Müller and J. 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Une histoire du changement climatique, XVe-XXe siècles}, title = {Les révoltes du ciel. Une histoire du changement climatique, XVe-XXe siècles}, year = {2020}} @book{anonymous2015environmental-epoch, editor = {Clive Hamilton and François Gemenne and Christophe Bonneuil}, keywords = {Anthropocene, Social Epistemologies, Values}, publisher = {Routledge }, series = {The Anthropocene and the Global Environmental CrisisRethinking modernity in a new epoch}, title = {The Anthropocene and the Global Environmental Crisis Rethinking modernity in a new epoch}, year = {2015}} @article{gramelsberger2020earth-system, author = {G. Gramelsberger and J. Lenhard and W.S. 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McWilliams}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.0702971104}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, keywords = {Hawkmoth effect, Theoretical foundations}, month = {5}, number = {21}, pages = {8709-8713}, publisher = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, title = {Irreducible imprecision in atmospheric and oceanic simulations}, volume = {104}, year = {2007}} @article{mearns2010uncertainties-future, author = {Linda O. 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Robustness Analysis and Climate Modeling}, year = {2018}} @article{oXXXloughlin2021climate-model, author = {Ryan O’Loughlin}, doi = {10.1016/j.shpsa.2020.12.005}, journal = {Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A}, keywords = {Confirmation \& evaluation, Ensemble methods, Robustness}, month = {2}, pages = {34-43}, publisher = {Elsevier BV}, title = {Robustness reasoning in climate model comparisons}, volume = {85}, year = {2021}} @article{oXXXloughlin2020climate-science, author = {Ryan O’Loughlin}, doi = {10.1016/j.shpsa.2019.07.002}, journal = {Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A}, keywords = {Value-free ideal, Values}, month = {6}, pages = {74-81}, publisher = {Elsevier BV}, title = {Seepage, objectivity, and climate science}, volume = {81}, year = {2020}} @article{oreskes2004consensus-change, author = {Naomi Oreskes}, doi = {10.1126/science.1103618}, journal = {Science}, keywords = {Expert judgement, Reliability \& uncertainty}, month = {12}, number = {5702}, pages = {1686-1686}, publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)}, title = {The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change}, volume = {306}, year = {2004}} @article{oreskes1994confirmation-sciences, author = {Naomi Oreskes and Kristin Shrader-Frechette and Kenneth Belitz}, doi = {10.1126/science.263.5147.641}, journal = {Science}, keywords = {Confirmation \& evaluation, Confirmational holism}, month = {2}, number = {5147}, pages = {641-646}, publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)}, title = {Verification, Validation, and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences}, volume = {263}, year = {1994}} @article{oreskes2010adaptation-models, author = {Naomi Oreskes and David A. Stainforth and Leonard A. Smith}, doi = {10.1086/657428}, journal = {Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Adaptation, Confirmation \& evaluation, Regional climate modelling, Reliability \& uncertainty}, month = {12}, number = {5}, pages = {1012-1028}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, title = {Adaptation to Global Warming: Do Climate Models Tell Us What We Need to Know?}, volume = {77}, year = {2010}} @inproceedings{parker2020evaluating-processing, author = {Wendy S. Parker}, booktitle = {Data Journeys in the Sciences}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-030-37177-7\_10}, keywords = {Data, Datasets, Reanalysis}, pages = {191-206}, publisher = {Springer International Publishing}, title = {Evaluating Data Journeys: Climategate, Synthetic Data and the Benchmarking of Methods for Climate Data Processing}, year = {2020}} @inproceedings{parker2018robust-projections, author = {Wendy S. Parker}, booktitle = {Climate Modelling}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-65058-6\_9}, keywords = {Confirmation \& evaluation, Ensemble methods, Reliability \& uncertainty, Robustness, Robustness}, pages = {273-296}, publisher = {Springer International Publishing}, title = {The Significance of Robust Climate Projections}, year = {2018}} @book{parker2015environmental-science, author = {Wendy S. Parker}, doi = {10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199941339.013.3}, editor = {Stephen M. Gardiner and Allen Thompson}, keywords = {Reliability \& uncertainty, Values}, month = {11}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, series = {Oxford Handbooks Online}, title = {Environmental Science}, year = {2015}} @article{parker2011computer-science, author = {Wendy S. Parker}, doi = {10.1007/s11016-011-9567-8}, journal = {Metascience}, month = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {111-114}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {Computer simulation and philosophy of science}, volume = {21}, year = {2011}} @article{parker2017computer-assimilation, author = {Wendy S. Parker}, doi = {10.1093/bjps/axv037}, journal = {The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Data}, month = {3}, number = {1}, pages = {273-304}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, title = {Computer Simulation, Measurement, and Data Assimilation}, volume = {68}, year = {2017}} @article{parker2008computer-simulation, author = {Wendy S. Parker}, doi = {10.1007/s11229-007-9296-0}, journal = {Synthese}, keywords = {Confirmation \& evaluation}, month = {2}, number = {3}, pages = {371-384}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {Computer simulation through an error-statistical lens}, volume = {163}, year = {2008}} @article{parker2008matter-computer, author = {Wendy S. Parker}, doi = {10.1007/s11229-008-9434-3}, journal = {Synthese}, keywords = {Confirmation \& evaluation, Data}, month = {11}, number = {3}, pages = {483-496}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {Does matter really matter? Computer simulations, experiments, and materiality}, volume = {169}, year = {2008}} @article{parker2010instrument-scientific, author = {Wendy S. Parker}, doi = {10.4245/sponge.v4i1.13765}, journal = {Spontaneous Generations: A Journal for the History and Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Data}, month = {8}, number = {1}, publisher = {Spontaneous Generations}, title = {An Instrument for What? Digital Computers, Simulation and Scientific Practice}, volume = {4}, year = {2010}} @article{parker2020computer-simulation, author = {Wendy S. Parker}, doi = {10.1007/s10670-020-00260-1}, journal = {Erkenntnis}, keywords = {Confirmation \& evaluation, Reliability \& uncertainty}, month = {5}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {Evidence and Knowledge from Computer Simulation}, year = {2020}} @article{parker2013getting-serious, author = {Wendy S. Parker}, doi = {10.1007/s10539-013-9406-y}, journal = {Biology \& Philosophy}, keywords = {Adequacy-for-purpose, Confirmation \& evaluation}, month = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {267-276}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {Getting (even more) serious about similarity}, volume = {30}, year = {2013}} @article{parker2016reanalyses, author = {Wendy S. Parker}, doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00226.1}, journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}, keywords = {Data, Reanalysis, Reliability \& uncertainty}, month = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {1565-1572}, publisher = {American Meteorological Society}, title = {Reanalyses and Observations: What’s the Difference?}, volume = {97}, year = {2016}} @article{parker2017reply, author = {Wendy S. Parker}, doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0192.1}, journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}, keywords = {Data, Reanalysis, Reliability \& uncertainty}, month = {11}, number = {11}, pages = {2461-2461}, publisher = {American Meteorological Society}, title = {Reply to “Comments on ‘Reanalyses and Observations: What’s the Difference?’”}, volume = {98}, year = {2017}} @article{parker2011models-significance, author = {Wendy S. Parker}, doi = {10.1086/661566}, journal = {Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Confirmation \& evaluation, Ensemble methods, Robustness, Values}, month = {10}, number = {4}, pages = {579-600}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, title = {When Climate Models Agree: The Significance of Robust Model Predictions*}, volume = {78}, year = {2011}} @article{parker2010comparative-process, author = {Wendy S. Parker}, doi = {10.1086/656814}, journal = {Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Attribution, Confirmation \& evaluation, Fingerprint studies}, month = {12}, number = {5}, pages = {1083-1095}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, title = {Comparative Process Tracing and Climate Change Fingerprints}, volume = {77}, year = {2010}} @article{parker2014understanding-weather, author = {Wendy S. Parker}, doi = {10.1162/POSC\_a\_00137}, journal = {Perspectives on Science}, keywords = {Confirmation \& evaluation, Understanding \& explanation}, month = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {336-356}, publisher = {MIT Press - Journals}, title = {Simulation and Understanding in the Study of Weather and Climate}, volume = {22}, year = {2014}} @article{parker2020model, author = {Wendy S. Parker}, doi = {10.1086/708691}, journal = {Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Adequacy-for-purpose, Confirmation \& evaluation}, month = {7}, number = {3}, pages = {457-477}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, title = {Model Evaluation: An Adequacy-for-Purpose View}, volume = {87}, year = {2020}} @article{parker2006understanding-modeling, author = {W. S. Parker}, doi = {10.1007/s10699-005-3196-x}, journal = {Foundations of Science}, keywords = {Confirmation \& evaluation, Ensemble methods, Reliability \& uncertainty}, month = {12}, number = {4}, pages = {349-368}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {Understanding Pluralism in Climate Modeling}, volume = {11}, year = {2006}} @article{parker2014uncertainties-revisited, author = {Wendy S. Parker}, doi = {10.1016/j.shpsa.2013.11.003}, journal = {Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A}, keywords = {Confirmation \& evaluation, Reliability \& uncertainty, Values}, month = {6}, pages = {24-30}, publisher = {Elsevier BV}, title = {Values and uncertainties in climate prediction, revisited}, volume = {46}, year = {2014}} @article{parker2010predicting-climate, author = {Wendy S. Parker}, doi = {10.1086/656815}, journal = {Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Ensemble methods, Probability \& possibility, Reliability \& uncertainty}, month = {12}, number = {5}, pages = {985-997}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, title = {Whose Probabilities? Predicting Climate Change with Ensembles of Models}, volume = {77}, year = {2010}} @article{parker2013uncertainty-robust, author = {Wendy S. Parker}, doi = {10.1002/wcc.220}, journal = {WIREs Climate Change}, keywords = {Ensemble methods, Reliability \& uncertainty, Robustness}, month = {4}, number = {3}, pages = {213-223}, publisher = {Wiley}, title = {Ensemble modeling, uncertainty and robust predictions}, volume = {4}, year = {2013}} @article{parker2009confirmation-modelling, author = {Wendy S. Parker}, doi = {10.1111/j.1467-8349.2009.00180.x}, journal = {Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume}, keywords = {Confirmation \& evaluation, Ensemble methods}, month = {6}, number = {1}, pages = {233-249}, publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)}, title = {II—Wendy S. Parker: Confirmation and adequacy-for-Purpose in Climate Modelling}, volume = {83}, year = {2009}} @article{parker2010ensembles-probability, author = {Wendy S. Parker}, doi = {10.1016/j.shpsb.2010.07.006}, journal = {Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics}, keywords = {Ensemble methods, Probability \& possibility, Reliability \& uncertainty}, month = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {263-272}, publisher = {Elsevier BV}, title = {Predicting weather and climate: Uncertainty, ensembles and probability}, volume = {41}, year = {2010}} @article{parker2019values-climate, author = {Wendy S. Parker and Greg Lusk}, doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0325.1}, journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}, keywords = {Adaptation, Reliability \& uncertainty, Values}, month = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {1643-1650}, publisher = {American Meteorological Society}, title = {Incorporating User Values into Climate Services}, volume = {100}, year = {2019}} @article{parker2015false-assessment, author = {Wendy S. Parker and James S. Risbey}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2014.0453}, journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences}, keywords = {Communication of uncertainties, Reliability \& uncertainty}, month = {11}, number = {2055}, pages = {20140453}, publisher = {The Royal Society}, title = {False precision, surprise and improved uncertainty assessment}, volume = {373}, year = {2015}} @article{pfrommer2019admissibility-reliability, author = {Tobias Pfrommer and Timo Goeschl and Alexander Proelss and Martin Carrier and Johannes Lenhard and Henrike Martin and Ulrike Niemeier and Hauke Schmidt}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-018-2362-4}, journal = {Climatic Change}, keywords = {Attribution, Extreme events, Reliability \& uncertainty}, month = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {67-84}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {Establishing causation in climate litigation: admissibility and reliability}, volume = {152}, year = {2019}} @article{pongiglione2012causal-change, author = {Francesca Pongiglione}, doi = {10.1387/theoria.3342}, journal = {THEORIA. An International Journal for Theory, History and Foundations of Science}, keywords = {Reliability \& uncertainty, Understanding \& explanation}, month = {5}, number = {2}, pages = {175-188}, publisher = {UPV/EHU Press}, title = {The key role of causal explanation in the climate change issue}, volume = {27}, year = {2012}} @article{rehg2017confidence-measure, author = {William Rehg and Kent Staley}, doi = {10.1016/j.shpsb.2016.10.008}, journal = {Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics}, keywords = {Communication of uncertainties, Expert judgement, Reliability \& uncertainty}, month = {2}, pages = {126-134}, publisher = {Elsevier BV}, title = {“Agreement” in the IPCC Confidence measure}, volume = {57}, year = {2017}} @article{rial2004climate-system, author = {José A. Rial and Roger A. Pielke Sr. and Martin Beniston and Martin Claussen and Josep Canadell and Peter Cox and Hermann Held and Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré and Ronald Prinn and James F. Reynolds and José D. Salas}, doi = {10.1023/B:CLIM.0000037493.89489.3f}, journal = {Climatic Change}, keywords = {Abrupt changes \& tipping points}, month = {7}, number = {1/2}, pages = {11-38}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {Nonlinearities, Feedbacks and Critical Thresholds within the Earth's Climate System}, volume = {65}, year = {2004}} @article{russill2015tipping-debates, author = {Chris Russill}, doi = {10.1002/wcc.344}, journal = {WIREs Climate Change}, keywords = {Abrupt changes \& tipping points}, month = {5}, number = {4}, pages = {427-434}, publisher = {Wiley}, title = {Climate change tipping points: origins, precursors, and debates}, volume = {6}, year = {2015}} @article{schmidt2014practical-philosophy, author = {Gavin A. Schmidt and Steven Sherwood}, doi = {10.1007/s13194-014-0102-9}, journal = {European Journal for Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Calibration/tuning, Confirmation \& evaluation}, month = {12}, number = {2}, pages = {149-169}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {A practical philosophy of complex climate modelling}, volume = {5}, year = {2014}} @article{schmidt2017across-centers, author = {Gavin A. Schmidt and David Bader and Leo J. Donner and Gregory S. Elsaesser and Jean-Christophe Golaz and Cecile Hannay and Andrea Molod and Richard B. Neale and Suranjana Saha}, doi = {10.5194/gmd-10-3207-2017}, journal = {Geoscientific Model Development}, keywords = {Calibration/tuning, Confirmation \& evaluation, Ensemble methods}, month = {9}, number = {9}, pages = {3207-3223}, publisher = {Copernicus GmbH}, title = {Practice and philosophy of climate model tuning across six US modeling centers}, volume = {10}, year = {2017}} @inproceedings{simonnet2009analysis-models, author = {Eric Simonnet and Henk A. Dijkstra and Michael Ghil}, booktitle = {Handbook of Numerical Analysis}, doi = {10.1016/S1570-8659(08)00203-2}, keywords = {Abrupt changes \& tipping points}, pages = {187-229}, publisher = {Elsevier}, title = {Bifurcation Analysis of Ocean, Atmosphere, and Climate Models}, year = {2009}} @article{smith2002learn-climate, author = {L. A. Smith}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.012580599}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, keywords = {Confirmation \& evaluation, Hawkmoth effect}, month = {2}, number = {Supplement 1}, pages = {2487-2492}, publisher = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, title = {What might we learn from climate forecasts?}, volume = {99}, year = {2002}} @article{smith2011climate-policy, author = {Leonard A. Smith and Nicholas Stern}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2011.0149}, journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences}, keywords = {Communication of uncertainties, Decision-making, Reliability \& uncertainty}, month = {12}, number = {1956}, pages = {4818-4841}, publisher = {The Royal Society}, title = {Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy}, volume = {369}, year = {2011}} @inproceedings{smithwick2019learning-about, author = {Erica A. H. Smithwick and Christopher Caldwell and Alexander Klippel and Robert M. Scheller and Nancy Tuana and Rebecca Bliege Bird and Klaus Keller and Dennis Vickers and Melissa Lucash and Robert E. Nicholas and Stacey Olson and Kelsey L. Ruckert and Jared Oyler and Casey Helgeson and Jiawei Huang}, booktitle = {Collaboration Across Boundaries for Social-Ecological Systems Science}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-030-13827-1\_5}, pages = {153-184}, publisher = {Springer International Publishing}, title = {Learning About Forest Futures Under Climate Change Through Transdisciplinary Collaboration Across Traditional and Western Knowledge Systems}, year = {2019}} @article{stainforth2007climate-predictions, author = {D.A Stainforth and M.R Allen and E.R Tredger and L.A Smith}, doi = {10.1098/rsta.2007.2074}, journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences}, keywords = {Calibration/tuning, Decision-making, Reliability \& uncertainty}, month = {6}, number = {1857}, pages = {2145-2161}, publisher = {The Royal Society}, title = {Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions}, volume = {365}, year = {2007}} @article{steele2012scientist-judgments, author = {Katie Steele}, doi = {10.1086/667842}, journal = {Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Decision-making, Values}, month = {12}, number = {5}, pages = {893-904}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, title = {The Scientist qua Policy Advisor Makes Value Judgments}, volume = {79}, year = {2012}} @article{steele2016model-climate, author = {Katie Steele and Charlotte Werndl}, doi = {10.1086/687944}, journal = {Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Confirmation \& evaluation, Confirmational holism}, month = {12}, note = {A discussion of what is dubbed the “intuitive position” of calibration and confirmation of climate models. In short, this position states, the tuning of a model directly influences the evaluation of said model, as a result the values used to tune the model cannot be used in the model’s evaluation. Steele and Werndl focus on the diversity of formal calibration methods and how the different perspectives relate to the intuitive position.}, number = {5}, pages = {1133-1144}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, title = {The Diversity of Model Tuning Practices in Climate Science}, volume = {83}, year = {2016}} @article{steele2013climate-confirmation, author = {Katie Steele and Charlotte Werndl}, doi = {10.1093/bjps/axs036}, journal = {The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Calibration/tuning, Confirmation \& evaluation}, month = {9}, note = {A discussion of the problem of double-counting in climate modeling, specifically when the same evidence is used to both calibrate a model and then confirm the adequacy of the results. Steele and Werndl turn to a Baysian approach to argue for a method of incremental confirmation, making double-counting unproblematic. For a response to this argument see Mathias Frisch’s 2015 paper “Predictivism and old evidence: a critical look at climate model tuning”.}, number = {3}, pages = {609-635}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, title = {Climate Models, Calibration, and Confirmation}, volume = {64}, year = {2013}} @article{steele2018nuanced-picture, author = {Katie Steele and Charlotte Werndl}, doi = {10.1093/bjps/axw024}, journal = {The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Calibration/tuning, Confirmation \& evaluation}, month = {6}, note = {A discussion regarding double-counting in climate modeling, arguing that the use-novel intuition largely held in the scientific community, that data used in tuning cannot be used in confirmation, is too crude. Steele and Werndl maintain that the prominent logics of confirmation do not, for varying reasons, support this intuitive position in full.}, number = {2}, pages = {351-375}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, title = {Model-Selection Theory: The Need for a More Nuanced Picture of Use-Novelty and Double-Counting}, volume = {69}, year = {2018}} @article{steffen2018trajectories-earth, author = {Will Steffen and Johan Rockström and Katherine Richardson and Timothy M. Lenton and Carl Folke and Diana Liverman and Colin P. Summerhayes and Anthony D. Barnosky and Sarah E. Cornell and Michel Crucifix and Jonathan F. Donges and Ingo Fetzer and Steven J. Lade and Marten Scheffer and Ricarda Winkelmann and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1810141115}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, keywords = {Abrupt changes \& tipping points, Anthropocene, Earth System Science}, month = {8}, number = {33}, pages = {8252-8259}, publisher = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, title = {Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene}, volume = {115}, year = {2018}} @article{tebaldi2011model-climate, author = {Claudia Tebaldi and Julie M. Arblaster and Reto Knutti}, doi = {10.1029/2011GL049863}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, keywords = {Ensemble methods, Predictions and projections, Reliability \& uncertainty, Robustness}, month = {12}, number = {23}, pages = {n/a-n/a}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union (AGU)}, title = {Mapping model agreement on future climate projections}, volume = {38}, year = {2011}} @article{touzXXXXXpeiffer2020structural-climate, author = {Ludovic Touzé‐Peiffer and Anouk Barberousse and Hervé Le Treut}, doi = {10.1002/wcc.648}, journal = {WIREs Climate Change}, keywords = {Ensemble methods}, month = {4}, number = {4}, publisher = {Wiley}, title = {The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project: History, uses, and structural effects on climate research}, volume = {11}, year = {2020}} @article{thompson2016change-adaptation, author = {Erica Thompson and Roman Frigg and Casey Helgeson}, doi = {10.1086/687942}, journal = {Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Expert judgement, Reliability \& uncertainty}, month = {12}, number = {5}, pages = {1110-1121}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, title = {Expert Judgment for Climate Change Adaptation}, volume = {83}, year = {2016}} @book{anonymous2018climate-modelling, doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-65058-6}, editor = {Elisabeth A. Lloyd and Eric Winsberg}, publisher = {Springer International Publishing}, title = {Climate Modelling}, year = {2018}} @article{vezXXr2016reasoning-distant, author = {Martin A. Vezér}, doi = {10.1007/s13194-016-0156-y}, journal = {European Journal for Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Data, Proxies}, month = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {257-265}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {Variety-of-evidence reasoning about the distant past}, volume = {7}, year = {2016}} @article{vezXXr2016models-robustness, author = {Martin A. Vezér}, doi = {10.1016/j.shpsa.2016.01.004}, journal = {Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A}, keywords = {Attribution, Ensemble methods, Robustness}, month = {4}, pages = {95-102}, publisher = {Elsevier BV}, title = {Computer models and the evidence of anthropogenic climate change: An epistemology of variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis}, volume = {56}, year = {2016}} @article{vezXXr2017epistemic-modelling, author = {Martin Vezér and Alexander Bakker and Klaus Keller and Nancy Tuana}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-017-2123-9}, journal = {Climatic Change}, keywords = {Values}, month = {12}, number = {1-2}, pages = {1-10}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {Epistemic and ethical trade-offs in decision analytical modelling}, volume = {147}, year = {2017}} @inproceedings{vineis2011epistemological-research, author = {Paolo Vineis and Aneire Khan and Flavio D'sAbramo}, booktitle = {Causality in the Sciences}, doi = {10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199574131.003.0023}, month = {3}, pages = {493-501}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, title = {Epistemological issues raised by research on climate change}, year = {2011}} @article{walmsley2020strategy-science, author = {Lachlan Douglas Walmsley}, doi = {10.1007/s11229-020-02707-y}, journal = {Synthese}, month = {5}, number = {1-2}, pages = {745-765}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {The strategy of model building in climate science}, volume = {199}, year = {2020}} @article{weart2012interdisciplinary-research, author = {S. Weart}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1107482109}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, month = {7}, number = {Supplement\_1}, pages = {3657-3664}, publisher = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, title = {Rise of interdisciplinary research on climate}, volume = {110}, year = {2012}} @article{weart2010development-general, author = {Spencer Weart}, doi = {10.1016/j.shpsb.2010.06.002}, journal = {Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics}, month = {9}, number = {3}, pages = {208-217}, publisher = {Elsevier BV}, title = {The development of general circulation models of climate}, volume = {41}, year = {2010}} @article{weart2009change-century, author = {Spencer R. Weart}, doi = {10.1002/wcc.6}, journal = {WIREs Climate Change}, month = {12}, number = {1}, pages = {67-81}, publisher = {Wiley}, title = {The idea of anthropogenic global climate change in the 20th century}, volume = {1}, year = {2009}} @article{weart2011global-denial, author = {Spencer Weart}, doi = {10.1177/0096340210392966}, journal = {Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists}, month = {1}, number = {1}, pages = {41-50}, publisher = {Informa UK Limited}, title = {Global warming: How skepticism became denial}, volume = {67}, year = {2011}} @article{werndl2019dependence-science, author = {Charlotte Werndl}, doi = {10.1093/bjps/axy021}, journal = {The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Hawkmoth effect, Reliability \& uncertainty, Theoretical foundations}, month = {12}, note = {An outline of predictions and projections in climate science through the lens of initial-condition dependence and initial-condition uncertainty. During the discussion of uncertainty, Werndl outlines two types which had not been discussed to much extent in the philosophical community. This new insight leads to many conclusions throughout the entirety of the paper.}, number = {4}, pages = {953-976}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, title = {Initial-Condition Dependence and Initial-Condition Uncertainty in Climate Science}, volume = {70}, year = {2019}} @article{werndl2016defining-climate, author = {Charlotte Werndl}, doi = {10.1093/bjps/axu048}, journal = {The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Climate \& climate change, Theoretical foundations}, month = {6}, note = {An outline of the ongoing debate regarding how to properly provide a definition of climate and climate change. Werndl first systematizes the debate by providing five desiderata that a proper definition of climate should follow. Ultimately, a number of candidates for a definition are discussed and Werndl argues that a definition focusing on a distribution over time for regimes of varying external conditions is the most promising as it meets all five desiderata.}, number = {2}, pages = {337-364}, publisher = {University of Chicago Press}, title = {On Defining Climate and Climate Change}, volume = {67}, year = {2016}} @article{williamson2013uncertain, author = {Jon Williamson}, doi = {10.1007/s10670-013-9516-6}, journal = {Erkenntnis}, keywords = {Communication of uncertainties, Expert judgement, Probability \& possibility, Reliability \& uncertainty}, month = {9}, number = {6}, pages = {1249-1271}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {How Uncertain Do We Need to Be?}, volume = {79}, year = {2013}} @inproceedings{winsberg2018uncertainty-values, author = {Eric Winsberg}, booktitle = {Climate Modelling}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-65058-6\_13}, keywords = {Communication of uncertainties, Reliability \& uncertainty, Values}, pages = {381-412}, publisher = {Springer International Publishing}, title = {Communicating Uncertainty to Policymakers: The Ineliminable Role of Values}, year = {2018}} @article{winsberg2015special-issue, author = {Eric Winsberg}, doi = {10.1007/s10838-015-9302-z}, journal = {Journal for General Philosophy of Science}, keywords = {Attribution, Extreme events, Storylines, Values}, month = {8}, number = {2}, pages = {337-338}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {Introduction to the Special Issue on Philosophy and Climate Science}, volume = {46}, year = {2015}} @book{winsberg2018climate-science, author = {Eric Winsberg}, doi = {10.1017/9781108164290}, month = {4}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, title = {Philosophy and Climate Science}, year = {2018}} @article{winsberg2018teach-climate, author = {Eric Winsberg}, doi = {10.1007/s11229-018-01997-7}, journal = {Synthese}, keywords = {Confirmation \& evaluation, Ensemble methods, Robustness, Values}, month = {11}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, title = {What does robustness teach us in climate science: a re-appraisal}, year = {2018}} @article{winsberg2012predictions-climate, author = {Eric Winsberg}, doi = {10.1353/ken.2012.0008}, journal = {Kennedy Institute of Ethics Journal}, keywords = {Predictions and projections, Reliability \& uncertainty, Values}, number = {2}, pages = {111-137}, publisher = {Project Muse}, title = {Values and Uncertainties in the Predictions of Global Climate Models}, volume = {22}, year = {2012}} @article{winsberg2016adventures-science, author = {Eric Winsberg and William Mark Goodwin}, doi = {10.1016/j.shpsb.2016.02.001}, journal = {Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics}, keywords = {Confirmation \& evaluation, Hawkmoth effect}, month = {5}, pages = {9-17}, publisher = {Elsevier BV}, title = {The adventures of climate science in the sweet land of idle arguments}, volume = {54}, year = {2016}} @article{winsberg2014accountability-research, author = {Eric Winsberg and Bryce Huebner and Rebecca Kukla}, doi = {10.1016/j.shpsa.2013.11.007}, journal = {Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A}, keywords = {Values}, month = {6}, pages = {16-23}, publisher = {Elsevier BV}, title = {Accountability and values in radically collaborative research}, volume = {46}, year = {2014}} @article{winsberg2020event-values, author = {Eric Winsberg and Naomi Oreskes and Elisabeth Lloyd}, doi = {10.1016/j.shpsa.2020.09.003}, journal = {Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A}, keywords = {Attribution, Extreme events, Values}, month = {12}, pages = {142-149}, publisher = {Elsevier BV}, title = {Severe weather event attribution: Why values won't go away}, volume = {84}, year = {2020}} @inproceedings{wXXthrich2017panel-climate, author = {Nicolas Wüthrich}, booktitle = {European Studies in Philosophy of Science}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-53730-6\_9}, keywords = {Communication of uncertainties, Expert judgement, Reliability \& uncertainty}, pages = {95-107}, publisher = {Springer International Publishing}, title = {Conceptualizing Uncertainty: An Assessment of the Uncertainty Framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change}, year = {2017}} @article{zumwald2020assessing-ensembles, author = {Marius Zumwald and Benedikt Knüsel and Christoph Baumberger and Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn and David N. Bresch and Reto Knutti}, doi = {10.1002/wcc.654}, journal = {WIREs Climate Change}, keywords = {Ensemble methods, Reliability \& uncertainty}, month = {5}, number = {5}, publisher = {Wiley}, title = {Understanding and assessing uncertainty of observational climate datasets for model evaluation using ensembles}, volume = {11}, year = {2020}}