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Building confidence in climate model projections: an analysis of inferences from fit. WIREs Climate Change. 2017 Baumberger, Christoph, Knutti, Reto, Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude

Confirmation & evaluation, Robustness

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Cites (19)

Citations in the corpus, listed by decreasing publication date.

  1. Computer Simulation, Measurement, and Data Assimilation. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2017 Parker, Wendy S.

    Data

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  2. Philosophy of Climate Science Part II: Modelling Climate Change. Philosophy Compass. 2015 Frigg, Roman, Thompson, Erica, Werndl, Charlotte

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  3. Philosophy of Climate Science Part I: Observing Climate Change. Philosophy Compass. 2015 Frigg, Roman, Thompson, Erica, Werndl, Charlotte

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  4. Simulation and Understanding in the Study of Weather and Climate. Perspectives on Science. 2014 Parker, Wendy S.

    Confirmation & evaluation, Understanding & explanation

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  5. Values and uncertainties in climate prediction, revisited. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2014 Parker, Wendy S.

    Confirmation & evaluation, Reliability & uncertainty, Values

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  6. The epistemology of climate models and some of its implications for climate science and the philosophy of science. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2014 Katzav, Joel

    Confirmation & evaluation, Probability & possibility, Reliability & uncertainty

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  7. The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09. Philosophy of Science. 2013 Frigg, Roman, Smith, Leonard A., Stainforth, David A.

    Hawkmoth effect, Reliability & uncertainty

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  8. Climate Models, Calibration, and Confirmation. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2013 Steele, Katie, Werndl, Charlotte

    Calibration/tuning, Confirmation & evaluation

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    Note

    A discussion of the problem of double-counting in climate modeling, specifically when the same evidence is used to both calibrate a model and then confirm the adequacy of the results. Steele and Werndl turn to a Baysian approach to argue for a method of incremental confirmation, making double-counting unproblematic. For a response to this argument see Mathias Frisch’s 2015 paper “Predictivism and old evidence: a critical look at climate model tuning”.

  9. Ensemble modeling, uncertainty and robust predictions. WIREs Climate Change. 2013 Parker, Wendy S.

    Ensemble methods, Reliability & uncertainty, Robustness

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  10. Hybrid Models, Climate Models, and Inference to the Best Explanation. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2013 Katzav, Joel

    Confirmation & evaluation, Understanding & explanation

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  11. Assessing climate model projections: State of the art and philosophical reflections. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2012 Katzav, Joel, Dijkstra, Henk A., (Jos) de Laat, A.T.J.

    Confirmation & evaluation, Reliability & uncertainty

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  12. The role of ‘complex’ empiricism in the debates about satellite data and climate models. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2012 Lloyd, Elisabeth A.

    Confirmation & evaluation, Data, Robustness

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  13. Values and Uncertainties in the Predictions of Global Climate Models. Kennedy Institute of Ethics Journal. 2012 Winsberg, Eric

    Predictions and projections, Reliability & uncertainty, Values

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  14. When Climate Models Agree: The Significance of Robust Model Predictions*. Philosophy of Science. 2011 Parker, Wendy S.

    Confirmation & evaluation, Ensemble methods, Robustness, Values

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  15. Confirmation and Robustness of Climate Models. Philosophy of Science. 2010 Lloyd, Elisabeth A.

    Confirmation & evaluation, Robustness

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  16. Holism, entrenchment, and the future of climate model pluralism. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2010 Lenhard, Johannes, Winsberg, Eric

    Confirmation & evaluation, Confirmational holism

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  17. Should we believe model predictions of future climate change? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2008 Knutti, Reto

    Confirmation & evaluation, Reliability & uncertainty

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  18. Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2007 Stainforth, D.A, Allen, M.R, Tredger, E.R, Smith, L.A

    Calibration/tuning, Decision-making, Reliability & uncertainty

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  19. Verification, Validation, and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences. Science. 1994 Oreskes, Naomi, Shrader-Frechette, Kristin, Belitz, Kenneth

    Confirmation & evaluation, Confirmational holism

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Cited by (16)

Cited by these reference in the corpus, listed by decreasing publication date.

  1. Diagnosing errors in climate model intercomparisons. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2023 O’Loughlin, Ryan

    Confirmation & evaluation, Robustness

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  2. Climate Models and Robustness Analysis – Part I: Core Concepts and Premises. In Handbook of the Philosophy of Climate Change. 2023 Harris, Margherita, Frigg, Roman

    Confirmation & evaluation, Robustness

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  3. Climate Models and Robustness Analysis – Part II: The Justificatory Challenge. In Handbook of the Philosophy of Climate Change. 2023 Harris, Margherita, Frigg, Roman

    Confirmation & evaluation, Robustness

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  4. On the appropriate and inappropriate uses of probability distributions in climate projections and some alternatives. Climatic Change. 2021 Katzav, Joel, Thompson, Erica L., Risbey, James, Stainforth, David A., Bradley, Seamus, Frisch, Mathias

    Decision-making, Ensemble methods, Expert judgement, Probability & possibility, Reliability & uncertainty

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  5. Climate modelling and structural stability. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2021 Lam, Vincent

    Hawkmoth effect, Structural stability, Theoretical foundations

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  6. Model spread and progress in climate modelling. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2021 Jebeile, Julie, Barberousse, Anouk

    Communication of uncertainties, Reliability & uncertainty

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  7. Values in early-stage climate engineering: The ethical implications of “doing the research”. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2021 Galbraith, Jude

    Geoengineering, Inductive risk, Value-free ideal, Values

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  8. Understanding climate change with statistical downscaling and machine learning. Synthese. 2020 Jebeile, Julie, Lam, Vincent, Räz, Tim

    Machine Learning, Regional climate modelling, Understanding & explanation

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  9. Philosophical Perspectives on Earth System Modeling: Truth, Adequacy, and Understanding. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 2020 Gramelsberger, G., Lenhard, J., Parker, W.S.

    Adequacy-for-purpose, Earth System Science

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  10. Philosophical Perspectives on Earth System Modeling: Truth, Adequacy, and Understanding. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 2020 Gramelsberger, G., Lenhard, J., Parker, W.S.

    Adequacy-for-purpose, Confirmation & evaluation, Understanding & explanation

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  11. Explicating Objectual Understanding: Taking Degrees Seriously. Journal for General Philosophy of Science. 2019 Baumberger, Christoph

    Understanding & explanation

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  12. Climate Models: How to Assess Their Reliability. International Studies in the Philosophy of Science. 2019 Carrier, Martin, Lenhard, Johannes

    Confirmation & evaluation, Confirmational holism, Robustness

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  13. Applying big data beyond small problems in climate research. Nature Climate Change. 2019 Knüsel, Benedikt, Zumwald, Marius, Baumberger, Christoph, Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude, Fischer, Erich M., Bresch, David N., Knutti, Reto

    Data

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  14. What Types of Values Enter Simulation Validation and What Are Their Roles? In Simulation Foundations, Methods and Applications. 2019 Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude, Baumberger, Christoph

    Confirmation & evaluation

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  15. Uncertainty Quantification Using Multiple Models—Prospects and Challenges. In Simulation Foundations, Methods and Applications. 2019 Knutti, Reto, Baumberger, Christoph, Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude

    Ensemble methods, Reliability & uncertainty

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  16. On Rationales for Cognitive Values in the Assessment of Scientific Representations. Journal for General Philosophy of Science. 2018 Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude

    Confirmation & evaluation

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