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Years (19)

Classified by year of earliest, online or print, publication date.

2021 (1)

  1. Numerical instability and dynamical systems. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2021 Ardourel, Vincent, Jebeile, Julie

    Reliability & uncertainty

2020 (16)

  1. Understanding climate phenomena with data-driven models. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2020 Knüsel, Benedikt, Baumberger, Christoph

    Understanding & explanation

  2. Argument-based assessment of predictive uncertainty of data-driven environmental models. Environmental Modelling & Software. 2020 Knüsel, Benedikt, Baumberger, Christoph, Zumwald, Marius, Bresch, David N., Knutti, Reto

    Data Reliability & uncertainty

  3. Severe weather event attribution: Why values won't go away. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2020 Winsberg, Eric, Oreskes, Naomi, Lloyd, Elisabeth

    Attribution Extreme events Values

  4. Multi-model ensembles in climate science: Mathematical structures and expert judgements. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2020 Jebeile, Julie, Crucifix, Michel

    Ensemble methods

  5. Understanding climate change with statistical downscaling and machine learning. Synthese. 2020 Jebeile, Julie, Lam, Vincent, Räz, Tim

    Regional climate modelling Understanding & explanation

  6. Why Simpler Computer Simulation Models Can Be Epistemically Better for Informing Decisions. Philosophy of Science. 2020 Helgeson, Casey, Srikrishnan, Vivek, Keller, Klaus, Tuana, Nancy

    Decision-making

  7. Uncertainties, Values, and Climate Targets. Philosophy of Science. 2020 Frisch, Mathias

    Reliability & uncertainty Values

  8. Values and Objectivity in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Social Epistemology. 2020 Jebeile, Julie

    Value-free ideal Values

  9. Model Evaluation: An Adequacy-for-Purpose View. Philosophy of Science. 2020 Parker, Wendy S.

    Adequacy-for-purpose Confirmation & evaluation

  10. Understanding and assessing uncertainty of observational climate datasets for model evaluation using ensembles. WIREs Climate Change. 2020 Zumwald, Marius, Knüsel, Benedikt, Baumberger, Christoph, Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude, Bresch, David N., Knutti, Reto

    Ensemble methods Reliability & uncertainty

  11. Confident, likely, or both? The implementation of the uncertainty language framework in IPCC special reports. Climatic Change. 2020 Janzwood, Scott

    Communication of uncertainties Expert judgement Reliability & uncertainty

  12. Evidence and Knowledge from Computer Simulation. Erkenntnis. 2020 Parker, Wendy S.

    Confirmation & evaluation Reliability & uncertainty

  13. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project: History, uses, and structural effects on climate research. WIREs Climate Change. 2020 Touzé‐Peiffer, Ludovic, Barberousse, Anouk, Le Treut, Hervé

    Ensemble methods

  14. Environmental catastrophes, climate change, and attribution. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. 2020 Lloyd, Elisabeth A., Shepherd, Theodore G.

    Attribution Extreme events Storylines

  15. Philosophical Perspectives on Earth System Modeling: Truth, Adequacy, and Understanding. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 2020 Gramelsberger, G., Lenhard, J., Parker, W.S.

    Adequacy-for-purpose Confirmation & evaluation Understanding & explanation

  16. Evaluating Data Journeys: Climategate, Synthetic Data and the Benchmarking of Methods for Climate Data Processing. Data Journeys in the Sciences. 2020 Parker, Wendy S.

    Data Datasets Reanalysis

2019 (12)

  1. Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against. Nature. 2019 Lenton, Timothy M., Rockström, Johan, Gaffney, Owen, Rahmstorf, Stefan, Richardson, Katherine, Steffen, Will, Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

    Abrupt changes & tipping points

  2. Explicating Objectual Understanding: Taking Degrees Seriously. Journal for General Philosophy of Science. 2019 Baumberger, Christoph

    Understanding & explanation

  3. Incorporating User Values into Climate Services. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2019 Parker, Wendy S., Lusk, Greg

    Adaptation Reliability & uncertainty Values

  4. Numerical Bifurcation Methods applied to Climate Models: Analysis beyond Simulation. 2019 Dijkstra, Henk A.

    Abrupt changes & tipping points

  5. Climate Models: How to Assess Their Reliability. International Studies in the Philosophy of Science. 2019 Carrier, Martin, Lenhard, Johannes

    Confirmation & evaluation Confirmational holism Robustness

  6. Visualizing Natural Environments from Data in Virtual Reality: Combining Realism and Uncertainty. 2019 IEEE Conference on Virtual Reality and 3D User Interfaces (VR). 2019 Huang, Jiawei, Lucash, Melissa S., Simpson, Mark B., Helgeson, Casey, Klippel, Alexander

  7. Applying big data beyond small problems in climate research. Nature Climate Change. 2019 Knüsel, Benedikt, Zumwald, Marius, Baumberger, Christoph, Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude, Fischer, Erich M., Bresch, David N., Knutti, Reto

    Data

  8. An antidote for hawkmoths: on the prevalence of structural chaos in non-linear modeling. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2019 Nabergall, Lukas, Navas, Alejandro, Winsberg, Eric

    Hawkmoth effect Reliability & uncertainty

  9. Establishing causation in climate litigation: admissibility and reliability. Climatic Change. 2019 Pfrommer, Tobias, Goeschl, Timo, Proelss, Alexander, Carrier, Martin, Lenhard, Johannes, Martin, Henrike, Niemeier, Ulrike, Schmidt, Hauke

    Attribution Extreme events Reliability & uncertainty

  10. What Types of Values Enter Simulation Validation and What Are Their Roles?. Simulation Foundations, Methods and Applications. 2019 Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude, Baumberger, Christoph

    Confirmation & evaluation

  11. Uncertainty Quantification Using Multiple Models—Prospects and Challenges. Simulation Foundations, Methods and Applications. 2019 Knutti, Reto, Baumberger, Christoph, Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude

    Ensemble methods Reliability & uncertainty

  12. Learning About Forest Futures Under Climate Change Through Transdisciplinary Collaboration Across Traditional and Western Knowledge Systems. Collaboration Across Boundaries for Social-Ecological Systems Science. 2019 Smithwick, Erica A. H., Caldwell, Christopher, Klippel, Alexander, Scheller, Robert M., Tuana, Nancy, Bird, Rebecca Bliege, Keller, Klaus, Vickers, Dennis, Lucash, Melissa, Nicholas, Robert E., Olson, Stacey, Ruckert, Kelsey L., Oyler, Jared, Helgeson, Casey, Huang, Jiawei

2018 (18)

  1. Holism, or the Erosion of Modularity: A Methodological Challenge for Validation. Philosophy of Science. 2018 Lenhard, Johannes

    Confirmation & evaluation Confirmational holism

  2. What does robustness teach us in climate science: a re-appraisal. Synthese. 2018 Winsberg, Eric

    Confirmation & evaluation Ensemble methods Robustness Values

  3. Climate and Simulation. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science. 2018 Gramelsberger, Gabriele

    Confirmation & evaluation

  4. Gaia 2.0. Science. 2018 Lenton, Timothy M., Latour, Bruno

    Abrupt changes & tipping points

  5. Structuring Decisions Under Deep Uncertainty. Topoi. 2018 Helgeson, Casey

    Decision-making

  6. Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2018 Steffen, Will, Rockström, Johan, Richardson, Katherine, Lenton, Timothy M., Folke, Carl, Liverman, Diana, Summerhayes, Colin P., Barnosky, Anthony D., Cornell, Sarah E., Crucifix, Michel, Donges, Jonathan F., Fetzer, Ingo, Lade, Steven J., Scheffer, Marten, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

    Abrupt changes & tipping points

  7. Issues in the theoretical foundations of climate science. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2018 Katzav, Joel, Parker, Wendy S.

    Climate & climate change Theoretical foundations Variability

  8. Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment. Climatic Change. 2018 Helgeson, Casey, Bradley, Richard, Hill, Brian

    Communication of uncertainties Reliability & uncertainty

  9. Initial-Condition Dependence and Initial-Condition Uncertainty in Climate Science. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2018 Werndl, Charlotte

    Hawkmoth effect Reliability & uncertainty Theoretical foundations

    Full text
    cites

    Betz 2009 Katzav 2014 Parker 2010 Parker 2017 Stainforth 2007 Thompson 2016 Winsberg 2018 Winsberg 2016

    note

    An outline of predictions and projections in climate science through the lens of initial-condition dependence and initial-condition uncertainty. During the discussion of uncertainty, Werndl outlines two types which had not been discussed to much extent in the philosophical community. This new insight leads to many conclusions throughout the entirety of the paper.

  10. Philosophy and Climate Science. 2018 Winsberg, Eric

  11. Abrupt Climate Change in an Oscillating World. Scientific Reports. 2018 Bathiany, S., Scheffer, M., van Nes, E. H., Williamson, M. S., Lenton, T. M.

    Abrupt changes & tipping points

  12. Climate Change Attribution: When Is It Appropriate to Accept New Methods?. Earth's Future. 2018 Lloyd, Elisabeth A., Oreskes, Naomi

    Attribution Extreme events Storylines

  13. On Rationales for Cognitive Values in the Assessment of Scientific Representations. Journal for General Philosophy of Science. 2018 Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude

    Confirmation & evaluation

  14. Modeling Climate Policies: The Social Cost of Carbon and Uncertainties in Climate Predictions. Climate Modelling. 2018 Frisch, Mathias

    Reliability & uncertainty

  15. Climate Model Confirmation: From Philosophy to Predicting Climate in the Real World. Climate Modelling. 2018 Knutti, Reto

    Confirmation & evaluation Predictions and projections

  16. The Significance of Robust Climate Projections. Climate Modelling. 2018 Parker, Wendy S.

    Confirmation & evaluation Ensemble methods Reliability & uncertainty Robustness

  17. Climate Modelling. 2018 Unknown

  18. Communicating Uncertainty to Policymakers: The Ineliminable Role of Values. Climate Modelling. 2018 Winsberg, Eric

    Communication of uncertainties Reliability & uncertainty Values

2017 (19)

  1. Mathematical Images of Planet Earth. Imagining Earth. 2017 Unknown

  2. Epistemic and ethical trade-offs in decision analytical modelling. Climatic Change. 2017 Vezér, Martin, Bakker, Alexander, Keller, Klaus, Tuana, Nancy

    Values

  3. Reply to “Comments on ‘Reanalyses and Observations: What’s the Difference?’”. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2017 Parker, Wendy S.

    Data Reanalysis Reliability & uncertainty

  4. Practice and philosophy of climate model tuning across six US modeling centers. Geoscientific Model Development. 2017 Schmidt, Gavin A., Bader, David, Donner, Leo J., Elsaesser, Gregory S., Golaz, Jean-Christophe, Hannay, Cecile, Molod, Andrea, Neale, Richard B., Saha, Suranjana

    Calibration/tuning Confirmation & evaluation Ensemble methods

  5. Is the choice of statistical paradigm critical in extreme event attribution studies?. Climatic Change. 2017 Stott, Peter A., Karoly, David J., Zwiers, Francis W.

    Attribution Extreme events Reliability & uncertainty

  6. Facing the Credibility Crisis of Science: On the Ambivalent Role of Pluralism in Establishing Relevance and Reliability. Perspectives on Science. 2017 Carrier, Martin

    Reliability & uncertainty

  7. Values and evidence: how models make a difference. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2017 Parker, Wendy S., Winsberg, Eric

    Probability & possibility Reliability & uncertainty Values

  8. Climate Change Assessments: Confidence, Probability, and Decision. Philosophy of Science. 2017 Bradley, Richard, Helgeson, Casey, Hill, Brian

    Communication of uncertainties Decision-making Reliability & uncertainty

  9. How to develop climate models? The “gamble” of improving climate model parameterizations. Cultures of Prediction in Atmospheric and Climate Science. 2017 Guillemot, Hélène

    Confirmation & evaluation Parameterization

  10. Cultures of Prediction in Atmospheric and Climate Science. 2017 Unknown

  11. Argument-based decision support for risk analysis. Journal of Risk Research. 2017 Hansson, Sven Ove, Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude

  12. Why the Argument from Inductive Risk Doesn’t Justify Incorporating Non-Epistemic Values in Scientific Reasoning. Current Controversies in Values and Science. 2017 Betz, Gregor

    Inductive risk Values

  13. The necessary and inaccessible 1.5°C objective. Globalising the Climate. 2017 Guillemot, Hélène

  14. Computer Simulation, Measurement, and Data Assimilation. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2017 Parker, Wendy S.

    Data

  15. The Art and Science of Climate Model Tuning. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2017 Hourdin, Frédéric, Mauritsen, Thorsten, Gettelman, Andrew, Golaz, Jean-Christophe, Balaji, Venkatramani, Duan, Qingyun, Folini, Doris, Ji, Duoying, Klocke, Daniel, Qian, Yun, Rauser, Florian, Rio, Catherine, Tomassini, Lorenzo, Watanabe, Masahiro, Williamson, Daniel

    Calibration/tuning Confirmation & evaluation Parameterization

  16. “Agreement” in the IPCC Confidence measure. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2017 Rehg, William, Staley, Kent

    Communication of uncertainties Expert judgement Reliability & uncertainty

  17. Building confidence in climate model projections: an analysis of inferences from fit. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. 2017 Baumberger, Christoph, Knutti, Reto, Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude

    Confirmation & evaluation Robustness

  18. Empirical Bayes as a Tool. Boston Studies in the Philosophy and History of Science. 2017 Barberousse, Anouk

    Attribution

  19. Conceptualizing Uncertainty: An Assessment of the Uncertainty Framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. European Studies in Philosophy of Science. 2017 Wüthrich, Nicolas

    Communication of uncertainties Expert judgement Reliability & uncertainty

2016 (13)

  1. Missing the Forest for the Fish: How Much Does the ‘Hawkmoth Effect’ Threaten the Viability of Climate Projections?. Philosophy of Science. 2016 Goodwin, William M., Winsberg, Eric

    Hawkmoth effect Reliability & uncertainty

  2. The Diversity of Model Tuning Practices in Climate Science. Philosophy of Science. 2016 Steele, Katie, Werndl, Charlotte

    Confirmation & evaluation Confirmational holism

    Full text
    note

    A discussion of what is dubbed the “intuitive position” of calibration and confirmation of climate models. In short, this position states, the tuning of a model directly influences the evaluation of said model, as a result the values used to tune the model cannot be used in the model’s evaluation. Steele and Werndl focus on the diversity of formal calibration methods and how the different perspectives relate to the intuitive position.

  3. Expert Judgment for Climate Change Adaptation. Philosophy of Science. 2016 Thompson, Erica, Frigg, Roman, Helgeson, Casey

    Expert judgement Reliability & uncertainty

  4. Lessons on Climate Sensitivity From Past Climate Changes. Current Climate Change Reports. 2016 von der Heydt, Anna S., Dijkstra, Henk A., van de Wal, Roderik S. W., Caballero, Rodrigo, Crucifix, Michel, Foster, Gavin L., Huber, Matthew, Köhler, Peter, Rohling, Eelco, Valdes, Paul J., Ashwin, Peter, Bathiany, Sebastian, Berends, Tijn, van Bree, Loes G. J., Ditlevsen, Peter, Ghil, Michael, Haywood, Alan M., Katzav, Joel, Lohmann, Gerrit, Lohmann, Johannes, Lucarini, Valerio, Marzocchi, Alice, Pälike, Heiko, Baroni, Itzel Ruvalcaba, Simon, Dirk, Sluijs, Appy, Stap, Lennert B., Tantet, Alexis, Viebahn, Jan, Ziegler, Martin

    Theoretical foundations Variability

  5. The Risk of Using Inductive Risk to Challenge the Value-Free Ideal. Philosophy of Science. 2016 de Melo-Martín, Inmaculada, Intemann, Kristen

    Inductive risk Values

  6. Reanalyses and Observations: What’s the Difference?. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2016 Parker, Wendy S.

    Data Reanalysis Reliability & uncertainty

  7. Model-Selection Theory: The Need for a More Nuanced Picture of Use-Novelty and Double-Counting. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2016 Steele, Katie, Werndl, Charlotte

    Calibration/tuning Confirmation & evaluation

    Full text
    cites

    Steele 2013 Oreskes 1994

    note

    A discussion regarding double-counting in climate modeling, arguing that the use-novel intuition largely held in the scientific community, that data used in tuning cannot be used in confirmation, is too crude. Steele and Werndl maintain that the prominent logics of confirmation do not, for varying reasons, support this intuitive position in full.

  8. Variety-of-evidence reasoning about the distant past. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2016 Vezér, Martin A.

    Data Proxies

  9. The adventures of climate science in the sweet land of idle arguments. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2016 Winsberg, Eric, Goodwin, William Mark

    Confirmation & evaluation Hawkmoth effect

  10. Computer models and the evidence of anthropogenic climate change: An epistemology of variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2016 Vezér, Martin A.

    Attribution Ensemble methods Robustness

  11. Risk of multiple interacting tipping points should encourage rapid CO2 emission reduction. Nature Climate Change. 2016 Cai, Yongyang, Lenton, Timothy M., Lontzek, Thomas S.

    Abrupt changes & tipping points

  12. Accounting for Possibilities in Decision Making. Logic, Argumentation & Reasoning. 2016 Betz, Gregor

    Probability & possibility Reliability & uncertainty

  13. Temporal Strategies for Decision-making. Logic, Argumentation & Reasoning. 2016 Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude

2015 (24)

  1. Philosophy of Climate Science Part I: Observing Climate Change. Philosophy Compass. 2015 Frigg, Roman, Thompson, Erica, Werndl, Charlotte

  2. Philosophy of Climate Science Part II: Modelling Climate Change. Philosophy Compass. 2015 Frigg, Roman, Thompson, Erica, Werndl, Charlotte

  3. Structural Chaos. Philosophy of Science. 2015 Mayo-Wilson, Conor

    Hawkmoth effect

  4. False precision, surprise and improved uncertainty assessment. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2015 Parker, Wendy S., Risbey, James S.

    Communication of uncertainties Reliability & uncertainty

  5. Environmental Science. In Gardiner, Stephen M., Thompson, Allen Oxford Handbooks Online. 2015 Parker, Wendy

    Reliability & uncertainty Values

  6. Making Climate Decisions. Philosophy Compass. 2015 Bradley, Richard, Steele, Katie

    Decision-making Reliability & uncertainty

  7. Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2015 Drijfhout, Sybren, Bathiany, Sebastian, Beaulieu, Claudie, Brovkin, Victor, Claussen, Martin, Huntingford, Chris, Scheffer, Marten, Sgubin, Giovanni, Swingedouw, Didier

    Abrupt changes & tipping points

  8. Decision strategies for policy decisions under uncertainties: The case of mitigation measures addressing methane emissions from ruminants. Environmental Science & Policy. 2015 Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude, Brun, Georg, Soliva, Carla Riccarda, Stenke, Andrea, Peter, Thomas

    Decision-making

  9. Factual and normative dissent in media debates about climate policy. Climatic Change. 2015 Betz, Gregor

  10. Introduction to the Special Issue on Philosophy and Climate Science. Journal for General Philosophy of Science. 2015 Winsberg, Eric

    Attribution Extreme events Storylines Values

  11. The unseen uncertainties in climate change: reviewing comprehension of an IPCC scenario graph. Climatic Change. 2015 McMahon, Rosemarie, Stauffacher, Michael, Knutti, Reto

    Communication of uncertainties Reliability & uncertainty Understanding & explanation

  12. Global Climate Modeling as Applied Science. Journal for General Philosophy of Science. 2015 Goodwin, William M.

    Confirmation & evaluation

  13. Uncertainties, Plurality, and Robustness in Climate Research and Modeling: On the Reliability of Climate Prognoses. Journal for General Philosophy of Science. 2015 Leuschner, Anna

    Ensemble methods Reliability & uncertainty Robustness

  14. The future of climate modeling. Climatic Change. 2015 Katzav, Joel, Parker, Wendy S.

    Confirmation & evaluation

  15. An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09. Synthese. 2015 Frigg, Roman, Smith, Leonard A., Stainforth, David A.

    Regional climate modelling Reliability & uncertainty

  16. Climate change tipping points: origins, precursors, and debates. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. 2015 Russill, Chris

    Abrupt changes & tipping points

  17. Introduction to Assessing climate models: knowledge, values and policy. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2015 Katzav, Joel, Parker, Wendy S.

    Confirmation & evaluation Values

  18. Stochastic integrated assessment of climate tipping points indicates the need for strict climate policy. Nature Climate Change. 2015 Lontzek, Thomas S., Cai, Yongyang, Judd, Kenneth L., Lenton, Timothy M.

    Abrupt changes & tipping points

  19. Predictivism and old evidence: a critical look at climate model tuning. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2015 Frisch, Mathias

    Calibration/tuning Confirmation & evaluation Confirmational holism

  20. Predictivism and old evidence: a critical look at climate model tuning. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2015 Frisch, Mathias

    Calibration/tuning Confirmation & evaluation

  21. Are climate models credible worlds? Prospects and limitations of possibilistic climate prediction. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2015 Betz, Gregor

    Probability & possibility Reliability & uncertainty

  22. Model robustness as a confirmatory virtue: The case of climate science. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2015 Lloyd, Elisabeth A.

    Confirmation & evaluation Robustness Values

  23. Distinguishing between legitimate and illegitimate values in climate modeling. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2015 Intemann, Kristen

    Values

  24. On Defining Climate and Climate Change. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2015 Werndl, Charlotte

    Climate & climate change Theoretical foundations

    Full text
    cites

    Parker 2006 Smith 2002 Steele 2013

    note

    An outline of the ongoing debate regarding how to properly provide a definition of climate and climate change. Werndl first systematizes the debate by providing five desiderata that a proper definition of climate should follow. Ultimately, a number of candidates for a definition are discussed and Werndl argues that a definition focusing on a distribution over time for regimes of varying external conditions is the most promising as it meets all five desiderata.

2014 (15)

  1. A practical philosophy of complex climate modelling. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2014 Schmidt, Gavin A., Sherwood, Steven

    Calibration/tuning Confirmation & evaluation

  2. Who's Afraid of Dissent? Addressing Concerns about Undermining Scientific Consensus in Public Policy Developments. Perspectives on Science. 2014 de Melo-Martín, Inmaculada, Intemann, Kristen

  3. Going back to basics. Nature Climate Change. 2014 Jakob, Christian

    Confirmation & evaluation Hawkmoth effect Theoretical foundations

  4. Climate Simulations: Uncertain Projections for an Uncertain World. Journal for General Philosophy of Science. 2014 Hillerbrand, Rafaela

    Reliability & uncertainty

  5. Model uncertainty and policy choice: A plea for integrated subjectivism. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2014 Isaac, Alistair M.C.

    Decision-making Reliability & uncertainty Values

  6. Simulation and Understanding in the Study of Weather and Climate. Perspectives on Science. 2014 Parker, Wendy S.

    Confirmation & evaluation Understanding & explanation

  7. The example of the IPCC does not vindicate the Value Free Ideal: a reply to Gregor Betz. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2014 John, Stephen

    Communication of uncertainties Reliability & uncertainty Values

  8. The IPCC and treatment of uncertainties: topics and sources of dissensus. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. 2014 Adler, Carolina E., Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude

    Climate change communication Communication of uncertainties

  9. How understanding causal relations counts in criticising arguments against anthropogenic global climate change. Meteorologische Zeitschrift. 2014 Bodenmann, Tom, Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude

    Understanding & explanation

  10. Values and uncertainties in climate prediction, revisited. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2014 Parker, Wendy

    Confirmation & evaluation Reliability & uncertainty Values

  11. Accountability and values in radically collaborative research. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2014 Winsberg, Eric, Huebner, Bryce, Kukla, Rebecca

    Values

  12. The epistemology of climate models and some of its implications for climate science and the philosophy of science. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2014 Katzav, Joel

    Confirmation & evaluation Probability & possibility Reliability & uncertainty

  13. MODEL ERROR AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTING: A CAUTIONARY TALE. Scientific Explanation and Methodology of Science. 2014 BRADLEY, SEAMUS, FRIGG, ROMAN, DU, HAILIANG, SMITH, LEONARD A.

    Ensemble methods Reliability & uncertainty

  14. Are there limits to scientists’ obligations to seek and engage dissenters?. Synthese. 2014 Intemann, Kristen, de Melo-Martín, Inmaculada

  15. Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices. Philosophy of Science. 2014 Frigg, Roman, Bradley, Seamus, Du, Hailiang, Smith, Leonard A.

    Hawkmoth effect Reliability & uncertainty

2013 (12)

  1. Getting (even more) serious about similarity. Biology & Philosophy. 2013 Parker, Wendy S.

    Adequacy-for-purpose Confirmation & evaluation

  2. The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09. Philosophy of Science. 2013 Frigg, Roman, Smith, Leonard A., Stainforth, David A.

    Hawkmoth effect Reliability & uncertainty

  3. Objectivity and a comparison of methodological scenario approaches for climate change research. Synthese. 2013 Lloyd, Elisabeth A., Schweizer, Vanessa J.

    Predictions and projections

  4. Severe testing of climate change hypotheses. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2013 Katzav, Joel

    Confirmation & evaluation

  5. Values and Uncertainty in Simulation Models. Erkenntnis. 2013 Morrison, Margaret

    Reliability & uncertainty Values

  6. How Uncertain Do We Need to Be?. Erkenntnis. 2013 Williamson, Jon

    Communication of uncertainties Expert judgement Probability & possibility Reliability & uncertainty

  7. Ensemble modeling, uncertainty and robust predictions. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. 2013 Parker, Wendy S.

    Ensemble methods Reliability & uncertainty Robustness

  8. Climate Models, Calibration, and Confirmation. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2013 Steele, K., Werndl, C.

    Calibration/tuning Confirmation & evaluation

    Full text
    cites

    Knutti 2008 Parker 2010 Parker 2009 Stainforth 2007

    note

    A discussion of the problem of double-counting in climate modeling, specifically when the same evidence is used to both calibrate a model and then confirm the adequacy of the results. Steele and Werndl turn to a Baysian approach to argue for a method of incremental confirmation, making double-counting unproblematic. For a response to this argument see Mathias Frisch’s 2015 paper “Predictivism and old evidence: a critical look at climate model tuning”.

  9. Modeling Climate Policies: A Critical Look at Integrated Assessment Models. Philosophy & Technology. 2013 Frisch, Mathias

    Understanding & explanation Values

  10. In defence of the value free ideal. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2013 Betz, Gregor

    Value-free ideal Values

  11. Climate Engineering. Handbuch Technikethik. 2013 Betz, Gregor

  12. Probabilistic Forecasting: Why Model Imperfection Is a Poison Pill. New Challenges to Philosophy of Science. 2013 Frigg, Roman, Bradley, Seamus, Machete, Reason L., Smith, Leonard A.

    Hawkmoth effect Reliability & uncertainty

2012 (13)

  1. Climate Science Controversies and the Demand for Access to Empirical Data. Philosophy of Science. 2012 McAllister, James W.

    Data Values

  2. The Scientist qua Policy Advisor Makes Value Judgments. Philosophy of Science. 2012 Steele, Katie

    Decision-making Values

  3. Assessing climate model projections: State of the art and philosophical reflections. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2012 Katzav, Joel, Dijkstra, Henk A., (Jos) de Laat, A.T.J.

    Confirmation & evaluation Reliability & uncertainty

  4. Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nature Climate Change. 2012 Knutti, Reto, Sedláček, Jan

    Ensemble methods Reliability & uncertainty Robustness

  5. Rise of interdisciplinary research on climate. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2012 Weart, S.

  6. Values and Objectivity in Science: Value-Ladenness, Pluralism and the Epistemic Attitude. Science & Education. 2012 Carrier, Martin

    Inductive risk Value-free ideal Values

  7. Climate Change Justice. Philosophy & Public Affairs. 2012 FRISCH, MATHIAS

  8. The role of ‘complex’ empiricism in the debates about satellite data and climate models. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2012 Lloyd, Elisabeth A.

    Confirmation & evaluation Data Robustness

  9. The key role of causal explanation in the climate change issue. THEORIA. An International Journal for Theory, History and Foundations of Science. 2012 Pongiglione, Francesca

    Reliability & uncertainty Understanding & explanation

  10. Hybrid Models, Climate Models, and Inference to the Best Explanation. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2012 Katzav, J.

    Confirmation & evaluation Understanding & explanation

  11. Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2012 Ashwin, Peter, Wieczorek, Sebastian, Vitolo, Renato, Cox, Peter

    Abrupt changes & tipping points

  12. The Inner World of Models and Its Epistemic Diversity: Infectious Disease and Climate Modelling. Automation, Collaboration, & E-Services. 2012 Gramelsberger, Gabriele, Mansnerus, Erika

  13. Values and Uncertainties in the Predictions of Global Climate Models. Kennedy Institute of Ethics Journal. 2012 Winsberg, Eric

    Predictions and projections Reliability & uncertainty Values

2011 (14)

  1. Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2011 Smith, Leonard A., Stern, Nicholas

    Communication of uncertainties Decision-making Reliability & uncertainty

  2. Perceiving, explaining, and observing climatic changes: An historical case study of the "year without a summer" 1816. Meteorologische Zeitschrift. 2011 Bodenmann, Tom, Brönnimann, Stefan, Hadorn, Gertrude Hirsch, Krüger, Tobias, Weissert, Helmut

    Understanding & explanation

  3. Mapping model agreement on future climate projections. Geophysical Research Letters. 2011 Tebaldi, Claudia, Arblaster, Julie M., Knutti, Reto

    Ensemble methods Predictions and projections Reliability & uncertainty Robustness

  4. Validation and forecasting accuracy in models of climate change. International Journal of Forecasting. 2011 Fildes, Robert, Kourentzes, Nikolaos

    Confirmation & evaluation

  5. When Climate Models Agree: The Significance of Robust Model Predictions*. Philosophy of Science. 2011 Parker, Wendy S.

    Confirmation & evaluation Ensemble methods Robustness Values

  6. The case for climate engineering research: an analysis of the “arm the future” argument. Climatic Change. 2011 Betz, Gregor

  7. Reasoning about climate uncertainty. Climatic Change. 2011 Curry, Judith

    Climate change communication Communication of uncertainties Reliability & uncertainty Values

  8. Computer simulation and philosophy of science. Metascience. 2011 Parker, Wendy S.

  9. Should we assess climate model predictions in light of severe tests?. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union. 2011 Katzav, Joel

    Confirmation & evaluation

  10. 2 °C or not 2 °C? That is the climate question. Nature. 2011 Lenton, Tim

    Abrupt changes & tipping points

  11. Epistemological issues raised by research on climate change. Causality in the Sciences. 2011 Vineis, Paolo, Khan, Aneire, D'sAbramo, Flavio

  12. Global warming: How skepticism became denial. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 2011 Weart, Spencer

  13. Modelling the Climate System: An Overview. Climate Change and Policy. 2011 Gramelsberger, Gabriele, Feichter, Johann

  14. Climate Change and Policy. 2011 Unknown

    Reliability & uncertainty

2010 (11)

  1. Confirmation and Robustness of Climate Models. Philosophy of Science. 2010 Lloyd, Elisabeth A.

    Confirmation & evaluation Robustness

  2. Quantification of Uncertainties of Future Climate Change: Challenges and Applications. Philosophy of Science. 2010 Mearns, Linda O.

    Communication of uncertainties Decision-making Reliability & uncertainty

  3. Adaptation to Global Warming: Do Climate Models Tell Us What We Need to Know?. Philosophy of Science. 2010 Oreskes, Naomi, Stainforth, David A., Smith, Leonard A.

    Adaptation Confirmation & evaluation Regional climate modelling Reliability & uncertainty

  4. Comparative Process Tracing and Climate Change Fingerprints. Philosophy of Science. 2010 Parker, Wendy S.

    Attribution Confirmation & evaluation Fingerprint studies

  5. Whose Probabilities? Predicting Climate Change with Ensembles of Models. Philosophy of Science. 2010 Parker, Wendy S.

    Ensemble methods Probability & possibility Reliability & uncertainty

  6. Connections between simulations and observation in climate computer modeling. Scientist’s practices and “bottom-up epistemology” lessons. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2010 Guillemot, Hélène

    Confirmation & evaluation

  7. Holism, entrenchment, and the future of climate model pluralism. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2010 Lenhard, Johannes, Winsberg, Eric

    Confirmation & evaluation Confirmational holism

  8. Predicting weather and climate: Uncertainty, ensembles and probability. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2010 Parker, Wendy S.

    Ensemble methods Probability & possibility Reliability & uncertainty

  9. The development of general circulation models of climate. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2010 Weart, Spencer

  10. An Instrument for What? Digital Computers, Simulation and Scientific Practice. Spontaneous Generations: A Journal for the History and Philosophy of Science. 2010 Parker, Wendy S.

    Data

  11. Generation of Evidence in Simulation Runs: Interlinking With Models for Predicting Weather and Climate Change. Simulation & Gaming. 2010 Gramelsberger, Gabriele

    Confirmation & evaluation

2009 (8)

  1. The idea of anthropogenic global climate change in the 20th century. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. 2009 Weart, Spencer R.

  2. Conceiving Meteorology as the exact science of the atmosphere: Vilhelm Bjerknes's paper of 1904 as a milestone. Meteorologische Zeitschrift. 2009 Gramelsberger, Gabriele

    Reliability & uncertainty

  3. Underdetermination, Model-ensembles and Surprises: On the Epistemology of Scenario-analysis in Climatology. Journal for General Philosophy of Science. 2009 Betz, Gregor

    Ensemble methods Reliability & uncertainty

  4. I—Elisabeth A. Lloyd: Varieties of Support and Confirmation of Climate Models. Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume. 2009 Lloyd, Elisabeth A.

    Confirmation & evaluation Robustness Values

  5. II—Wendy S. Parker: Confirmation and adequacy-for-Purpose in Climate Modelling. Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume. 2009 Parker, Wendy S.

    Confirmation & evaluation Ensemble methods

  6. What range of future scenarios should climate policy be based on? Modal falsificationism and its limitations. Philosophia Naturalis. 2009 Betz, Gregor

    Reliability & uncertainty

  7. Simulation - Analyse der organisationellen Etablierungsbestrebungen der epistemischen Kultur des Simulierens am Beispiel der Klimamodellierung. Organisationen der Forschung. 2009 Gramelsberger, Gabriele

  8. Bifurcation Analysis of Ocean, Atmosphere, and Climate Models. Handbook of Numerical Analysis. 2009 Simonnet, Eric, Dijkstra, Henk A., Ghil, Michael

    Abrupt changes & tipping points

2008 (3)

  1. Does matter really matter? Computer simulations, experiments, and materiality. Synthese. 2008 Parker, Wendy S.

    Confirmation & evaluation Data

  2. Should we believe model predictions of future climate change?. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2008 Knutti, Reto

    Confirmation & evaluation Reliability & uncertainty

  3. Computer simulation through an error-statistical lens. Synthese. 2008 Parker, Wendy S.

    Confirmation & evaluation

2007 (3)

  1. Probabilities in climate policy advice: a critical comment. Climatic Change. 2007 Betz, Gregor

    Probability & possibility Reliability & uncertainty

  2. Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2007 Stainforth, D.A, Allen, M.R, Tredger, E.R, Smith, L.A

    Calibration/tuning Decision-making Reliability & uncertainty

  3. Irreducible imprecision in atmospheric and oceanic simulations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2007 McWilliams, J. C.

    Hawkmoth effect Theoretical foundations

2006 (1)

  1. Understanding Pluralism in Climate Modeling. Foundations of Science. 2006 Parker, W. S.

    Confirmation & evaluation Ensemble methods Reliability & uncertainty

2004 (2)

  1. The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change. Science. 2004 Oreskes, Naomi

    Expert judgement Reliability & uncertainty

  2. Nonlinearities, Feedbacks and Critical Thresholds within the Earth's Climate System. Climatic Change. 2004 Rial, José A., Pielke Sr., Roger A., Beniston, Martin, Claussen, Martin, Canadell, Josep, Cox, Peter, Held, Hermann, de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie, Prinn, Ronald, Reynolds, James F., Salas, José D.

    Abrupt changes & tipping points

2002 (1)

  1. What might we learn from climate forecasts?. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2002 Smith, L. A.

    Confirmation & evaluation Hawkmoth effect

1994 (1)

  1. Verification, Validation, and Confirmation of Numerical Models in the Earth Sciences. Science. 1994 Oreskes, N., Shrader-Frechette, K., Belitz, K.

    Confirmation & evaluation Confirmational holism