An antidote for hawkmoths: on the prevalence of structural chaos in non-linear modeling. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2019 Nabergall, Lukas, Navas, Alejandro, Winsberg, Eric

Hawkmoth effect, Reliability & uncertainty

Philosophy and Climate Science. 2018 Winsberg, Eric

Climate Model Confirmation: From Philosophy to Predicting Climate in the Real World. In Lloyd, Elisabeth A., Winsberg, Eric (eds.) Climate Modelling. 2018 Knutti, Reto

Confirmation & evaluation, Predictions and projections

Building confidence in climate model projections: an analysis of inferences from fit. WIREs Climate Change. 2017 Baumberger, Christoph, Knutti, Reto, Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude

Confirmation & evaluation, Robustness

Missing the Forest for the Fish: How Much Does the ‘Hawkmoth Effect’ Threaten the Viability of Climate Projections? Philosophy of Science. 2016 Goodwin, William M., Winsberg, Eric

Hawkmoth effect, Reliability & uncertainty

Expert Judgment for Climate Change Adaptation. Philosophy of Science. 2016 Thompson, Erica, Frigg, Roman, Helgeson, Casey

Expert judgement, Reliability & uncertainty

The adventures of climate science in the sweet land of idle arguments. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2016 Winsberg, Eric, Goodwin, William Mark

Confirmation & evaluation, Hawkmoth effect

Structural Chaos. Philosophy of Science. 2015 Mayo-Wilson, Conor

Hawkmoth effect

An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09. Synthese. 2015 Frigg, Roman, Smith, Leonard A., Stainforth, David A.

Regional climate modelling, Reliability & uncertainty

MODEL ERROR AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTING: A CAUTIONARY TALE. In Scientific Explanation and Methodology of Science. 2014 Bradley, Seamus, Frigg, Roman, Du, Hailiang, Smith, Leonard A.

Ensemble methods, Reliability & uncertainty

Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices. Philosophy of Science. 2014 Frigg, Roman, Bradley, Seamus, Du, Hailiang, Smith, Leonard A.

Hawkmoth effect, Reliability & uncertainty

The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09. Philosophy of Science. 2013 Frigg, Roman, Smith, Leonard A., Stainforth, David A.

Hawkmoth effect, Reliability & uncertainty

Probabilistic Forecasting: Why Model Imperfection Is a Poison Pill. In New Challenges to Philosophy of Science. 2013 Frigg, Roman, Bradley, Seamus, Machete, Reason L., Smith, Leonard A.

Hawkmoth effect, Reliability & uncertainty

Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2012 Ashwin, Peter, Wieczorek, Sebastian, Vitolo, Renato, Cox, Peter

Abrupt changes & tipping points

II—Wendy S. Parker: Confirmation and adequacy-for-Purpose in Climate Modelling. Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume. 2009 Parker, Wendy S.

Confirmation & evaluation, Ensemble methods

Irreducible imprecision in atmospheric and oceanic simulations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2007 McWilliams, J. C.

Hawkmoth effect, Theoretical foundations

What might we learn from climate forecasts? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2002 Smith, L. A.

Confirmation & evaluation, Hawkmoth effect

An ineffective antidote for hawkmoths. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2022 Frigg, Roman, Smith, Leonard A.

Hawkmoth effect, Reliability & uncertainty