Subjects » Reliability & uncertainty
Issues related to the trustworthiness of the future climate projections and to the characterization of the related uncertainties.
References (75)
The subject ‘Reliability & uncertainty’ is applied to these references.
Against “Possibilist” Interpretations of Climate Models. Philosophy of Science. 2023
Communication of uncertainties, Probability & possibility, Reliability & uncertainty
An ineffective antidote for hawkmoths. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2022
When is an ensemble like a sample? “Model-based” inferences in climate modeling. Synthese. 2022
On the appropriate and inappropriate uses of probability distributions in climate projections and some alternatives. Climatic Change. 2021
Decision-making, Ensemble methods, Expert judgement, Probability & possibility, Reliability & uncertainty
Model spread and progress in climate modelling. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2021
Numerical instability and dynamical systems. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2021
Climate Models and the Irrelevance of Chaos. Philosophy of Science. 2021
Uncertainties, Values, and Climate Targets. Philosophy of Science. 2020
Argument-based assessment of predictive uncertainty of data-driven environmental models. Environmental Modelling & Software. 2020
Structural uncertainty through the lens of model building. Synthese. 2020
Parameterization, Reliability & uncertainty, Structural model error
Understanding and assessing uncertainty of observational climate datasets for model evaluation using ensembles. WIREs Climate Change. 2020
Confident, likely, or both? The implementation of the uncertainty language framework in IPCC special reports. Climatic Change. 2020
Communication of uncertainties, Expert judgement, Reliability & uncertainty
Evidence and Knowledge from Computer Simulation. Erkenntnis. 2020
Initial-Condition Dependence and Initial-Condition Uncertainty in Climate Science. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2019
Hawkmoth effect, Reliability & uncertainty, Theoretical foundations
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An outline of predictions and projections in climate science through the lens of initial-condition dependence and initial-condition uncertainty. During the discussion of uncertainty, Werndl outlines two types which had not been discussed to much extent in the philosophical community. This new insight leads to many conclusions throughout the entirety of the paper.
Incorporating User Values into Climate Services. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2019
An antidote for hawkmoths: on the prevalence of structural chaos in non-linear modeling. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2019
Establishing causation in climate litigation: admissibility and reliability. Climatic Change. 2019
Uncertainty Quantification Using Multiple Models—Prospects and Challenges. In Simulation Foundations, Methods and Applications. 2019
Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment. Climatic Change. 2018
Modeling Climate Policies: The Social Cost of Carbon and Uncertainties in Climate Predictions. In Climate Modelling. 2018
The Significance of Robust Climate Projections. In Climate Modelling. 2018
Confirmation & evaluation, Ensemble methods, Reliability & uncertainty, Robustness, Robustness
Communicating Uncertainty to Policymakers: The Ineliminable Role of Values. In Climate Modelling. 2018
Communication of uncertainties, Reliability & uncertainty, Values
Reply to “Comments on ‘Reanalyses and Observations: What’s the Difference?’”. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2017
Assessing climate change impacts on extreme weather events: the case for an alternative (Bayesian) approach. Climatic Change. 2017
Facing the Credibility Crisis of Science: On the Ambivalent Role of Pluralism in Establishing Relevance and Reliability. Perspectives on Science. 2017
Climate Change Assessments: Confidence, Probability, and Decision. Philosophy of Science. 2017
Communication of uncertainties, Decision-making, Reliability & uncertainty
“Agreement” in the IPCC Confidence measure. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2017
Communication of uncertainties, Expert judgement, Reliability & uncertainty
Conceptualizing Uncertainty: An Assessment of the Uncertainty Framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In European Studies in Philosophy of Science. 2017
Communication of uncertainties, Expert judgement, Reliability & uncertainty
Missing the Forest for the Fish: How Much Does the ‘Hawkmoth Effect’ Threaten the Viability of Climate Projections? Philosophy of Science. 2016
Expert Judgment for Climate Change Adaptation. Philosophy of Science. 2016
Is it appropriate to ‘target’ inappropriate dissent? on the normative consequences of climate skepticism. Synthese. 2016
Climate change communication, Communication of uncertainties, Communication of uncertainties, Reliability & uncertainty, Values
Reanalyses and Observations: What’s the Difference? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2016
Accounting for Possibilities in Decision Making. In Logic, Argumentation & Reasoning. 2016
False precision, surprise and improved uncertainty assessment. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2015
The unseen uncertainties in climate change: reviewing comprehension of an IPCC scenario graph. Climatic Change. 2015
Communication of uncertainties, Reliability & uncertainty, Understanding & explanation
Uncertainties, Plurality, and Robustness in Climate Research and Modeling: On the Reliability of Climate Prognoses. Journal for General Philosophy of Science. 2015
Climate skepticism and the manufacture of doubt: can dissent in science be epistemically detrimental? European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2015
Climate change communication, Communication of uncertainties, Communication of uncertainties, Reliability & uncertainty, Values
An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09. Synthese. 2015
Are climate models credible worlds? Prospects and limitations of possibilistic climate prediction. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2015
Climate Simulations: Uncertain Projections for an Uncertain World. Journal for General Philosophy of Science. 2014
Model uncertainty and policy choice: A plea for integrated subjectivism. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2014
The example of the IPCC does not vindicate the Value Free Ideal: a reply to Gregor Betz. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2014
Communication of uncertainties, Reliability & uncertainty, Values
Values and uncertainties in climate prediction, revisited. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2014
Confirmation & evaluation, Reliability & uncertainty, Values
The epistemology of climate models and some of its implications for climate science and the philosophy of science. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2014
Confirmation & evaluation, Probability & possibility, Reliability & uncertainty
MODEL ERROR AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTING: A CAUTIONARY TALE. In Scientific Explanation and Methodology of Science. 2014
Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices. Philosophy of Science. 2014
The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09. Philosophy of Science. 2013
Chaos, Plurality, and Model Metrics in Climate Science. In Models, Simulations, and the Reduction of Complexity. 2013
Values and Uncertainty in Simulation Models. Erkenntnis. 2013
How Uncertain Do We Need to Be? Erkenntnis. 2013
Communication of uncertainties, Expert judgement, Probability & possibility, Reliability & uncertainty
Ensemble modeling, uncertainty and robust predictions. WIREs Climate Change. 2013
Probabilistic Forecasting: Why Model Imperfection Is a Poison Pill. In New Challenges to Philosophy of Science. 2013
Assessing climate model projections: State of the art and philosophical reflections. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2012
Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nature Climate Change. 2012
The key role of causal explanation in the climate change issue. THEORIA. An International Journal for Theory, History and Foundations of Science. 2012
Values and Uncertainties in the Predictions of Global Climate Models. Kennedy Institute of Ethics Journal. 2012
Predictions and projections, Reliability & uncertainty, Values
Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2011
Communication of uncertainties, Decision-making, Reliability & uncertainty
Mapping model agreement on future climate projections. Geophysical Research Letters. 2011
Ensemble methods, Predictions and projections, Reliability & uncertainty, Robustness
Reasoning about climate uncertainty. Climatic Change. 2011
Climate change communication, Communication of uncertainties, Communication of uncertainties, Reliability & uncertainty, Values
Quantification of Uncertainties of Future Climate Change: Challenges and Applications. Philosophy of Science. 2010
Communication of uncertainties, Decision-making, Reliability & uncertainty
Adaptation to Global Warming: Do Climate Models Tell Us What We Need to Know? Philosophy of Science. 2010
Adaptation, Confirmation & evaluation, Regional climate modelling, Reliability & uncertainty
Whose Probabilities? Predicting Climate Change with Ensembles of Models. Philosophy of Science. 2010
Ensemble methods, Probability & possibility, Reliability & uncertainty
Predicting weather and climate: Uncertainty, ensembles and probability. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2010
Ensemble methods, Probability & possibility, Reliability & uncertainty
Conceiving Meteorology as the exact science of the atmosphere: Vilhelm Bjerknes's paper of 1904 as a milestone. Meteorologische Zeitschrift. 2009
Underdetermination, Model-ensembles and Surprises: On the Epistemology of Scenario-analysis in Climatology. Journal for General Philosophy of Science. 2009
What range of future scenarios should climate policy be based on? Modal falsificationism and its limitations. Philosophia Naturalis. 2009
Should we believe model predictions of future climate change? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2008
Probabilities in climate policy advice: a critical comment. Climatic Change. 2007
Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2007
Calibration/tuning, Decision-making, Reliability & uncertainty
Understanding Pluralism in Climate Modeling. Foundations of Science. 2006
Confirmation & evaluation, Ensemble methods, Reliability & uncertainty
Status and Improvements of Coupled General Circulation Models. Science. 2000