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Is reliable climate change information ‘predictably uncertain’? European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2026
Cites (43)
Citations in the corpus, listed by decreasing publication date.
Climate Sensitivity through the Lens of Measurement Practice. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2025
Stability, Robustness Reasoning, and Measuring the Human Contribution to Warming. Philosophy of Science. 2025
Paleoclimate Proxies and the Benefits of Disunity. Philosophy of Science. 2024
Contrast classes and agreement in climate modeling. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2024
Expert judgment in climate science: How it is used and how it can be justified. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2023
Usability of climate information: Toward a new scientific framework. WIREs Climate Change. 2023
Against “Possibilist” Interpretations of Climate Models. Philosophy of Science. 2023
Communication of uncertainties, Probability & possibility, Uncertainties
Climate Models and Robustness Analysis – Part I: Core Concepts and Premises. In Handbook of the Philosophy of Climate Change. 2023
The Unity of Robustness: Why Agreement Across Model Reports is Just as Valuable as Agreement Among Experiments. Erkenntnis. 2022
Confirming (climate) change: a dynamical account of model evaluation. Synthese. 2022
The epistemic value of independent lies: false analogies and equivocations. Synthese. 2021
Value management and model pluralism in climate science. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2021
Climate Models and the Irrelevance of Chaos. Philosophy of Science. 2021
Robustness reasoning in climate model comparisons. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2021
Data models, representation and adequacy-for-purpose. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2021
Local Model-Data Symbiosis in Meteorology and Climate Science. Philosophy of Science. 2020
Understanding climate change with statistical downscaling and machine learning. Synthese. 2020
Machine Learning, Regional climate modelling, Understanding & explanation
Model Evaluation: An Adequacy-for-Purpose View. Philosophy of Science. 2020
Structural uncertainty through the lens of model building. Synthese. 2020
Understanding and assessing uncertainty of observational climate datasets for model evaluation using ensembles. WIREs Climate Change. 2020
Evaluating Data Journeys: Climategate, Synthetic Data and the Benchmarking of Methods for Climate Data Processing. In Data Journeys in the Sciences. 2020
Initial-Condition Dependence and Initial-Condition Uncertainty in Climate Science. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2019
Hawkmoth effect, Theoretical foundations, Uncertainties
Full textCitesCited byNote
An outline of predictions and projections in climate science through the lens of initial-condition dependence and initial-condition uncertainty. During the discussion of uncertainty, Werndl outlines two types which had not been discussed to much extent in the philosophical community. This new insight leads to many conclusions throughout the entirety of the paper.
What does robustness teach us in climate science: a re-appraisal. Synthese. 2018
Confirmation & evaluation, Ensemble methods, Robustness, Values
Issues in the theoretical foundations of climate science. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2018
Climate & climate change, Theoretical foundations, Variability
The Significance of Robust Climate Projections. In Climate Modelling. 2018
Confirmation & evaluation, Ensemble methods, Robustness, Robustness, Uncertainties
Climate Model Confirmation: From Philosophy to Predicting Climate in the Real World. In Lloyd, Elisabeth A., Winsberg, Eric (eds.) Climate Modelling. 2018
Values and evidence: how models make a difference. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2017
Computer Simulation, Measurement, and Data Assimilation. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2017
On Defining Climate and Climate Change. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science. 2016
Climate & climate change, Theoretical foundations
Full textCitesCited byNote
An outline of the ongoing debate regarding how to properly provide a definition of climate and climate change. Werndl first systematizes the debate by providing five desiderata that a proper definition of climate should follow. Ultimately, a number of candidates for a definition are discussed and Werndl argues that a definition focusing on a distribution over time for regimes of varying external conditions is the most promising as it meets all five desiderata.
Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change. Nature Climate Change. 2016
An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09. Synthese. 2015
Predictivism and old evidence: a critical look at climate model tuning. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2015
Predictivism and old evidence: a critical look at climate model tuning. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2015
Model robustness as a confirmatory virtue: The case of climate science. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A. 2015
A practical philosophy of complex climate modelling. European Journal for Philosophy of Science. 2014
The epistemology of climate models and some of its implications for climate science and the philosophy of science. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2014
Confirmation & evaluation, Probability & possibility, Uncertainties
Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices. Philosophy of Science. 2014
The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09. Philosophy of Science. 2013
Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nature Climate Change. 2012
When Climate Models Agree: The Significance of Robust Model Predictions*. Philosophy of Science. 2011
Confirmation & evaluation, Ensemble methods, Robustness, Values
Adaptation to Global Warming: Do Climate Models Tell Us What We Need to Know? Philosophy of Science. 2010
Adaptation, Confirmation & evaluation, Regional climate modelling, Uncertainties
Predicting weather and climate: Uncertainty, ensembles and probability. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics. 2010
What might we learn from climate forecasts? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2002
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